If House Republicans were counting on redistricting to save their endangered majority, it isn’t working.
The Indiana Senate resoundingly crushed President Donald Trump’s months-long push to force a mid-decade redraw of the Hoosier State’s congressional map. The 19-31 vote spared Democratic Reps. André Carson and Frank Mrvan and denied House Republicans two new red seats.
“I just don’t think they understand the ramifications nationally,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) said of his state’s legislators, adding: “Shame on us.”
This loss is the latest in a series of stinging redistricting defeats and setbacks for Republicans in Ohio, Utah, Kansas and potentially Missouri. And a big GOP win in Texas is likely to be canceled out by Democrats’ success in California.
At this point, Trump’s redistricting war is a wash at best. Right now, Republicans may net two or three seats, but even that outcome is uncertain.
A couple of key states — Florida and Virginia — won’t draw new maps until next year. And that’s only if state legislators in both states overcome some significant obstacles.
The Supreme Court also hasn’t ruled in a major Louisiana Voting Rights Act case, although the full ramifications of that decision may not be felt until 2028.
Trump factor. Trump has made little secret of his desire to draw enough new GOP-friendly seats to insulate House Republicans from a potentially perilous political environment in 2026. Democrats only have to win four seats to flip the House, and the margin may be even smaller by November.
A Democratic-controlled House would stymie Trump’s agenda for the final two years of his presidency. More importantly, it would give Democrats a bully pulpit to subject Trump to intense oversight, including potential impeachment.
“The Al Green impeachment effort today should be a reminder right there — that’s what it’s going to look like in 2027,” Stutzman said, referring to a failed resolution to impeach Trump offered by Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) on Thursday.
And remember — Democrats can flip the House even if Republicans reverse their redistricting misfortunes. It’s harder, but certainly doable.
The next phase. The next big fronts in the redistricting wars lie on the East Coast. Democrats are plotting a new map in Virginia while Republicans have begun the process in Florida. There’s a real possibility that these states cancel each other out.
Legislative leaders in Richmond are openly pushing the prospect of a 10D-1R map, which would net Democrats four seats. Some Democrats in the Virginia congressional delegation are less certain. They see a 9D-2R map as more likely. The current Virginia map is 6D-5R.
“It’s not really up to me, but I think that’s gonna be a challenge with geography and population, if we want to keep communities of interest together,” Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.) said. “But, you know, anything’s possible.”
In Florida, senior Republicans are mixed on how many seats the GOP can net. Some believe they can muster just one. Others think the GOP can draw three new seats. The current Florida map is 20R-8D.
Florida Republicans seem certain to try to redraw Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Fla.) seat in the Orlando area. Then the question becomes whether they’ll aim to redraw the South Florida seats belonging to Democratic Reps. Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Jared Moskowitz. Or can they lure Moskowitz into the Trump administration? He’s already been on the short list for the FEMA administratorship in the past.
Then there’s Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor’s seat in Tampa, which would be tougher to redraw.
Another issue: Democrats won the Miami mayor’s race this week for the first time in nearly 30 years, raising questions about Trump’s standing with Latino voters in the Sunshine State. Trump carried Florida by a stunning 13 points in 2024.
“Trump’s 2024 numbers are inflated. And most of the delegation also outperformed Kamala,” Soto said of then-Vice President Kamala Harris. “They’re operating on quicksand.”
But Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) downplayed the Miami results, noting that the GOP – and Trump – remain strong statewide.
“Are there issues? Of course. But that’s not a reflection [of a shift in Florida] at all,” Diaz-Balart told us. “It’s always a little bit dangerous to read too much into any of the races, and that’s the case of Miami.”
Redistricting math. Indiana isn’t the first red state to resist Trump’s push. Kansas, New Hampshire and Nebraska could have yielded one seat each if Republicans there had the will to do so. Only North Carolina and Texas have succeeded so far.
A state court gave Democrats a safe, blue seat in Utah. In Missouri, Democrats had no problem getting enough signatures to freeze Republicans’ proposed map, though party leaders will try to get as many thrown out as possible.
The good news for Republicans is that it’ll be harder now for Democrats to find the political capital to redistrict in Maryland and Illinois. The Democratic-controlled legislatures in both states were eagerly watching what played out in Indiana.
The wildcard. A favorable Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais could bring Republicans a windfall of new red seats in the South. The justices seem likely to strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which protects majority-minority districts. But timing is everything.
Filing deadlines are coming up fast and redistricting takes time. Any ruling will have a much greater impact in 2028.
If the decision comes early in 2026, Louisiana and Alabama are prepared to quickly redraw maps in a way that could yield anywhere from two to four districts. Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn in South Carolina could be another target.
