The redistricting wars are ramping up.
Texas is expected to release its proposed new congressional map imminently. Ohio is required by law to redistrict before 2026. And President Donald Trump teased last week that “three or four or five” other states could redraw.
Republicans left seats on the table during the last redistricting. GOP-controlled legislatures can attempt new maps now, but it will be easier in some states than in others.
Here are the top places to watch.
Missouri. This is perhaps the easiest place for the GOP to gain a seat. Republicans in Jefferson City are already discussing a new map that would give them seven of the state’s eight districts — and the White House is on board, according to sources familiar with the process. In 2022, Missouri lawmakers drew a map that elected six Republicans and two Democrats over the vehement objections of some in the GOP.
The Kansas City-based seat of Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver isn’t protected by the Voting Rights Act. Republicans could end Cleaver’s congressional tenure by cracking Kansas City.
Florida. Twenty of the state’s 28 districts are GOP-held. Some Republicans believe they could squeeze even more out of a new map, thanks to the rapid political transformation in South Florida since 2020. Democratic Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Jared Moskowitz and Lois Frankel could be in the danger zone there.
Other possible targets: Rep. Kathy Castor in Tampa and Darren Soto in the Orlando area. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has already proven aggressive when it comes to redistricting. His decision to doom former Democratic Rep. Al Lawson in 2022 was just upheld by the Florida Supreme Court.
New Hampshire. Former GOP Gov. Chris Sununu vetoed a map passed by Republican majorities in the state’s legislature that would have made Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas’ district more winnable.
Sununu’s successor, Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, sounded skeptical about mid-decade redistricting in late 2024. But if Ayotte gets on board, there are Republicans in the legislature who would love to push their preferred map. It doesn’t hurt that Pappas is leaving the House.
Beyond these states, it gets much more difficult, but not impossible, for Republicans to push new maps.
Kansas. The state constitution has no explicit ban on mid-decade redistricting for congressional maps. Republicans could split up Kansas City to complicate reelection for Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids.
Republicans have the ability to override a veto of a map from Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. But the state legislature isn’t in session again until 2026, and Kelly isn’t likely to call a special session for redistricting.
Kentucky. Republicans declined to crack Louisville in 2022 even though the GOP majorities could override a veto from Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear. It’d be tough to do so now. Kentucky’s legislature also isn’t in session. Plus, the Kentucky Supreme Court court could very well side with Democrats on a legal challenge.
Indiana. The GOP left Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan’s district in the northwest corner of the state intact during the last redistricting. Republicans could carve it up now but it would look gnarly. It’s not clear if Republican Gov. Mike Braun or the legislature have the appetite.
Nebraska. Republicans could shore up retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon’s Omaha-based seat. They control the unicameral legislature and technically have the votes to overcome a Democratic filibuster. The problem here is that some moderate Republicans might not go along with it.
