California Republicans have significantly scaled back their TV advertising against Proposition 50 amid increasing pessimism among the GOP that they’ll be able to defeat Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting ballot measure.
To date, Newsom’s group boosting Prop 50 has spent nearly $43 million on TV, radio, digital and streaming ads. The two GOP groups opposing Prop 50 have spent a combined $27 million so far. That’s a $16 million gap.
No on Prop 50 – Protect Voters First, an anti-Prop 50 group funded by GOP donor Charles Munger Jr., has spent $20.1 million on ads so far. However, the group isn’t airing any TV ads this week, with a little less than one month away from the Nov. 4 election, per AdImpact.
No on Prop 50 – Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, an allied group led by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has spent a little less than $7 million on ads in total. It slashed its spending from $4 million last week to less than $2 million this week so far.
Privately, many Republicans believe it’s growing more likely that Prop 50 will pass. That’s thanks to the spending advantage, as well as the fact that Democrats have successfully nationalized the race with ads featuring President Donald Trump, according to multiple sources in both parties tracking the campaign.
Fundraising for the anti-Prop 50 effort isn’t going as well as hoped. Republicans in Washington are privately miffed that McCarthy said he planned to raise $100 million for the effort but has spent less than $7 million on ads.
The McCarthy-aligned group said in a statement that it is “continuing to invest the necessary resources to run a data-driven campaign” that can reach key voters efficiently with available resources.
“No amount of campaign cash, clever spin, or all-caps posts can hide the truth: Prop 50 strips power from the people and hands it to greedy politicians at great taxpayer expense while pretending it’s for democracy,” Ellie Hockenbury, an adviser to the group, said.
Some House Republicans have chipped in: Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) gave $300,000. Republican Reps. Vince Fong and Jay Obernolte of California gave $100,000 each. California GOP Reps. Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa, who would be drawn into deep blue districts under the proposed new map, have donated as well. LaMalfa gave $250,000.
It’s hard to overstate the significance of this ballot measure. Democrats could neutralize the new Texas congressional map. Calvert, LaMalfa, Reps. Darrell Issa, Kevin Kiley and David Valadao could lose reelection. This could very well sway the battle for control of the House.
