As the government shutdown enters its third week, Senate Majority Leader John Thune is shaking things up with a Thursday vote on the full-year FY2026 Defense Department funding bill.
It’s unclear if Senate Democrats will block the measure. Thune wants to make good on his promises for a bipartisan funding process. And a failed vote would allow Republicans to hammer Democrats for blocking a bill that would restore military paychecks.
But Democrats are looking to keep the shutdown fight focused on health care, with a key inflection point just two weeks away: The start of open enrollment.
“[Republicans] should be thinking about Nov. 1 as a time by which they need to have solved this,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told us.
Open enrollment. Starting Nov. 1, many Americans registering for new health care plans will see higher projected premiums for 2026. Democrats have said Nov. 1 is the effective deadline for congressional action on the expiring Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits. But Democratic leaders also believe missing that deadline will only ratchet up pressure on Republicans.
So blowing past the start of open enrollment isn’t likely to push Democrats to shift their strategy or give in to Republicans’ “clean” CR — a sign that this shutdown could drag well into November.
“It’s still not possible to stop the full impact of the rate increases after Nov. 1,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told us. “If we don’t deal with this before Nov. 1, it becomes trickier to solve legislatively, but the heat gets turned way up by the public to do something.”
This is a major gamble by Democrats, as GOP leaders are showing no signs of buckling. Thune and Senate Republican leaders are continuing to force vote after vote on the House-passed CR that funds the government until Nov. 21 — and now, a Thursday procedural vote on full-year Defense funding.
So Democrats are doubling down on their health care messaging.
“We’re gonna have to make the assessment on what’s going on… with people, with the voting public — how are they taking the fact that Republicans just doubled their premiums?” Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said.
Thune’s appropriations move. Thune is clearly eager to pass full-year funding bills. He’s even nodding to the possibility of moving the CR end-date beyond Nov. 21 given how long the shutdown has lasted already.
“There’s an appetite to do other appropriations bills. We’ve said all along that’s our intention,” Thune told us. “We’re gonna see if the Dems want to help us do that.”
Democrats could very well filibuster the Thursday procedural vote, viewing it as an attempt to distract from health care.
Thune may try to package the defense appropriations bill with the Labor-HHS funding bill as a way to appeal to Democrats, an idea pushed by Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine). But that would require unanimous consent, and Thune isn’t likely to get that.
All eyes on Nov. 1. There are a few different things that can happen before the end of the month that could drive lawmakers to quickly end the shutdown, as we noted in Tuesday’s AM edition.
There’s also the next scheduled military payday, which is Oct. 31 — the day before open enrollment begins.
The Pentagon’s decision to cover troops’ paychecks this week by redirecting nearly $8 billion from its research and development account is only good for one pay period. It’s unclear whether the White House is eyeing another funding source for the next paycheck.
