We want to welcome back members of the House of Representatives to Capitol Hill. Remember — the big white building with the giant dome is the Capitol. That’s where the House floor is. We know, it’s been a while.
By midnight tonight, the federal government should be open for the first time since Oct. 1. This has been the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, disrupting the lives of millions of Americans.
But these last six weeks have provided yet another demonstration that shutdowns are substantively pointless as a negotiating tactic. The instigating party — in this case, the Democrats — never wins any policy victories when the government is closed down.
Know before you go. Very early this morning — around 1:30 a.m. — the House Rules Committee approved a resolution allowing the chamber to take up the Senate-passed funding package to reopen the government.
This came after Republicans defeated Democratic efforts to amend the bill, including adding an extension of expiring Obamacare premium subsidies. This Rules resolution will allow the GOP leadership to bring the Jan. 30 CR plus a three-bill minibus package to the floor for a vote today.
At 4 p.m., Speaker Mike Johnson will swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who won the special election to replace her late father, Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.), on Sept. 23. This unprecedented delay has infuriated Democrats and set an ugly new precedent for the House.
The Republican leadership will then begin the debate on the funding package, with a rule vote an hour later. Final passage of the CR-minibus package is projected for around 7 p.m. It’ll be later than that. But we’ll keep you posted.
We don’t expect a marathon speech from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on this package. Senate Democrats consented to speeding up passage in their chamber. And there’s really no reason for Jeffries to drag this process out any further, Democratic aides said.
But remember that the House Republican leadership needs to make sure that all of their 219 members are in town. With a two-vote margin, Johnson and Republicans will have no votes to spare. The aviation map was looking pretty good Tuesday — just 10% of commercial flights were disrupted compared to 45% Monday, according to Flighty.
The Republican side. For such a gigantic vote, the House Republican leadership and the Trump administration seem relatively calm about the support for this package among their rank-and-file. There are no immediate plans for President Donald Trump to engage in whipping House Republicans, although we’ll see where today ends up.
As we reported Monday, there are a few names you should keep an eye on. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has voted against most government funding bills under Johnson’s leadership. Trump is pushing a primary challenger to Massie.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has used the 50-plus days out of session to begin a makeover of her political identity. Greene has sharply criticized Johnson (that’s not new) for keeping the House out of session, doing nothing to get Trump’s agenda into law and ignoring the skyrocketing cost of living for average Americans.
Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) is always a wild card. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) often takes some work to get to yes, as well.
Even after 54 days out of Washington, the House Republican leadership has no plans to hold a GOP conference meeting because members are arriving throughout the day.
Democratic vibes. The Democrats’ strategy in sparking the shutdown didn’t work. They gambled that Trump would abandon Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune to cut a deal with Democrats. He didn’t. The strategy was out of the first-term Trump playbook. Trump now has two congressional leaders he trusts to execute his agenda. In the first term, Trump had none.
Jeffries kept his caucus united throughout the shutdown, unlike Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Just one House Democrat — Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) — voted for the CR six weeks ago. Since then, House Democrats have largely been speaking from the same message book.
Several House Democrats have come out in favor of dumping Schumer. This is just hot air, since House Democrats have absolutely no say in who the Senate Democratic leader is. No one is seeking their input, although it’s another bad headline for Schumer.
Some rank-and-file Democrats are already griping to us privately about how party leaders are talking about the cave. One House Democrat said that the party should’ve said it’s time to open up the government, and now it’s on Republicans to fix skyrocketing health care costs.
Republicans believe a handful of Democrats will vote for this package — and they’re probably right. Golden is an expected yes, and several other names are being floated.
Johnson’s next moves. After today’s vote, Johnson is sending the House home for the week. Johnson warned of “long days and long nights here for the foreseeable future” on Capitol Hill. But not this week, apparently.
Johnson has three main challenges in the coming weeks.
1) The new CR only runs for 79 days. Yes, this is a bummer. And the next phase of the FY2026 spending fight is even more difficult. Johnson, Thune, Schumer, Jeffries and the “Four Corners” appropriators will have to find agreement on the most contentious bills, including Labor-HHS, Commerce-Justice-Science, Defense and Homeland Security.
2) Obamacare premium tax credits expire at the end of this year. Nothing has changed about this despite the shutdown. To forestall moderate Republicans signing onto a discharge petition calling for a subsidies extension, Johnson is going to have to show he’s serious about passing a health-care reform bill. Johnson wants to get something passed by the end of the year — just 49 days away. That’s an extremely short timeframe, especially with the holiday season coming up.
Johnson’s leadership team is cool to the idea of using reconciliation to achieve this. But they have their work cut out for them.
3) In the House Rules Committee Tuesday night, several Republicans — Reps. Chip Roy (Texas) and Austin Scott (Ga.), for example, expressed anger about provision in the Legislative Branch spending bill that allows senators to sue the government if their phone records were turned over to the Justice Department. Roy said the provision needs to be repealed — and sounded serious about it.
4) By the end of today, the Jeffrey Epstein discharge petition will hit 218 signatures. This means the full House will have to go on record whether they support or oppose the release of the full Epstein files by the Justice Department. This will be used against vulnerable Republicans in 2026 if they vote no.
