PHOENIX — Democrats are taking their case against Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” to all 50 states.
While redistricting is the major wild card, Democrats’ chances of taking the House will depend on their ability to effectively wield that anti-OBBB messaging in places like Arizona, where Trump won by more than five points last year. That’s especially true in the toss-up 6th District. Democrats are targeting GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani once again.
First elected in 2022, Ciscomani is seen as a moderate who emphasizes bipartisanship and leans on his own personal immigration story. Ciscomani narrowly won his first race two cycles ago, although he expanded that margin comfortably last November in a good year for Republicans.
But Ciscomani’s vote for the GOP reconciliation bill was a gamble, especially given his often-stated red lines on Medicaid cuts.
Democrats’ case. It’s only August of an off-year midterm campaign, yet Democrats know they need to sustain the lopsided public disapproval for the OBBB in the ultimate battleground state as their 2026 messaging takes shape.
“Juan Ciscomani was very vocal. ‘I’m gonna protect it, I’m gonna fight, gonna do everything I can.’ And then he turns around and votes for the big billionaire bill,” JoAnna Mendoza, a Democrat and ex-Marine running against Ciscomani, said of Medicaid during an interview. “He obviously thinks his constituents are dumb and that we’re not gonna see through this.”
Yet using OBBB in states and districts like this one could be a bit more difficult, as we noted on Friday. Trump and Republicans are touting the bill as having prevented a massive tax increase while also creating new tax breaks for working-class Americans.
“We will all pay for this bill, except the billionaires,” countered Marlene Galán-Woods, a Democrat running against GOP Rep. David Schweikert in the Phoenix area. “Everyone will pay higher premiums. We will all have higher energy costs.”
Leading up to the final vote, Ciscomani signed onto several letters warning against significant Medicaid cuts, noting the impacts that would have specifically on rural and Hispanic communities.
In late June, shortly before the final vote, Ciscomani and 15 other House GOP moderates wrote a letter criticizing the Senate’s Medicaid framework, which was stricter than the House version. The Republican lawmakers said it “threatens access to coverage or jeopardizes the stability of our hospitals and providers.”
The Senate’s version won out in the end. All but two House Republicans supported the final product, including Ciscomani. Ciscomani later said he was “proud” to support the bill and noted that the Senate doubled the rural hospital fund and delayed implementation of the provider tax crackdown.
Democrats’ messaging in Arizona extends beyond OBBB, too.
Inflation was a massive political vulnerability for Democrats under former President Joe Biden and a successful GOP talking point in 2024, particularly in Arizona. Democrats are now trying to use the issue against Republicans, pointing to Trump’s tariff regime and recent Labor Department reports showing inflation is back on the rise.
In Arizona, Democrats are trying to localize those impacts. Electricity costs are rising twice as fast as the overall cost of living, which is especially burdensome in a part of the country where triple-digit temperatures are the norm all summer.
“We’re already seeing [it with] the price of gas, groceries and utilities — especially here in Arizona, where it is freaking hot as hell,” Mendoza said, noting that her electricity bill was over $400 last month.
The GOP view. Republicans structured the bill such that the tax benefits — like no taxes on tips or overtime — will be felt immediately while the Medicaid changes won’t be implemented until after the 2026 elections.
This complicates Democrats’ framing a bit, though they’ve noted that state providers will need to trim budgets now in order to prepare.
Still, it helps explain why Republicans are focusing on the more popular elements of the bill.
“Rep. Juan Ciscomani delivered exactly what Arizona voters demanded by lowering taxes and securing the border,” NRCC spokesperson Ben Petersen said.
Ciscomani’s Tuscon-area district extends north toward Maricopa County and back down toward the southeast corner of the state, including sections of the U.S.-Mexico border. Illegal border crossings have plummeted since Trump took office, which Republicans believe voters will reward them for. The reconciliation bill includes new border funding, too.
Mendoza acknowledged the drop in illegal border crossings but said nationwide ICE raids are “putting the fear of God in people.”
Ciscomani wasn’t made available for an interview. Daniel Scarpinato, a top campaign official, emphasized Ciscomani’s bipartisan credentials. This could help insulate Ciscomani from Democrats’ attacks for backing the bill.
“Whether it’s funding for border security, tax cuts for working people or accelerating the widening of I-10, Juan is laser-focused on the needs of southern Arizona,” Scarpinato told us.
Ciscomani out-performed Trump in the district in 2024, winning by two and a half points as Trump only carried it by less than a point. Ciscomani’s Democratic opponent in 2022 and 2024 was Kirsten Engel, a well-known former state legislator.
Mendoza, meanwhile, is largely untested. While she’s the favorite so far in a crowded Democratic field and just won Sen. Mark Kelly’s (D-Ariz.) endorsement, the primary isn’t until next August. Galán-Woods also has a contested primary.
