Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his allies across the West were relieved when Congress approved more than $60 billion in badly needed aid for Kyiv in April after months of costly delays.
But Capitol Hill’s staunchest Ukraine supporters are already looking ahead to the next legislative showdown. That could come at the outset of the next Congress and is certain to heighten tensions not only in Washington but across Europe.
The outcome will depend on several factors. The most important is whether former President Donald Trump returns to the White House or President Joe Biden wins reelection. It also depends on which party is in charge of the House and Senate. In the meantime, Ukraine’s military needs to continue showing progress in taking back its territory from Russia, according to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
“The conflict over the summer and how it is perceived to turn out is extremely important in answering the question inevitably coming up in democracies — can they win?” McConnell told us in a recent interview. “Zelensky made it clear he’s not interested in giving up any territory, and they’ve certainly demonstrated their courage.”
McConnell has been Ukraine’s most important ally on the Hill, seemingly in constant battle with other Republicans over the need to continue U.S. support for Kyiv. McConnell met with Zelensky multiple times last week in Washington during the NATO summit, including some one-on-one time.
But McConnell will no longer be the Senate GOP leader come January. The number of Republicans willing to vote for Ukraine aid has dwindled. It took more than six months for Congress to pass the last aid package amid deep GOP strife.
However, McConnell insists he’ll remain deeply involved in ensuring that the Western coalition doesn’t fray heading into 2025.
Defining victory: At the same time, Trump’s allies in Congress have been arguing that the United States should facilitate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to end the war. This, of course, would almost certainly involve Ukraine giving up territory to Russia.
Zelensky says he won’t let that happen — and Republicans in McConnell’s camp don’t believe he should, as it would essentially reward Russia’s war crimes. Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) recently slammed those calling for a negotiated end to the war in light of Russia’s bombing of a children’s hospital in Kyiv.
McConnell acknowledged that no one quite knows yet what a Ukrainian “win” looks like, which is part of the challenge for pro-Ukraine Republicans.
“[The Ukrainians] know they need to have some signs of success here, which will reassure the democratic countries that they can win,” McConnell added.
Despite the headwinds, McConnell is optimistic. He sees an “improved” political situation for Republicans when it comes to the Ukraine issue, noting that no GOP incumbent who backed Ukraine aid lost a primary this cycle. And McConnell sees rooting out the GOP’s “isolationist” streak in the Trump era as the “top priority” for his final two years in the Senate.
Another reason for optimism is that two of McConnell’s potential successors as Senate GOP leader — Minority Whip John Thune and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have remained supportive of helping Ukraine. Dealing with the right flank will be a challenge, as it was for McConnell.
“Reagan would turn over in his grave if he thought we were not willing to stand up for people fighting for their independence — particularly against the Russians,” McConnell told us.
