If for some reason, you needed a reminder of how chaotic President-elect Donald Trump’s second term could get, we’re in the middle of one of those episodes right now.
Let’s leave aside for a moment the controversial nominations of Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) as director of national intelligence. Let’s just focus on Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) already endangered nomination to be the next attorney general.
Trump announced Gaetz’s nomination without giving Senate Republicans a heads-up. Many were absolutely stunned. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), a 50-year veteran of Congress, stood speechless for 30 seconds when reporters grilled him on whether the widely disliked Gaetz deserved to be confirmed. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) signaled their dismay. Other Senate Republicans told us privately that Gaetz can’t get the votes to be approved.
Speaker Mike Johnson then informed reporters that Gaetz had resigned from this Congress effective immediately. Gaetz has won reelection to the 119th Congress that begins in January, so there’ll have to be a special election to replace him. In other words, Gaetz’s resignation is just the start of the process of picking some to replace him.
We scooped moments later that Gaetz’s sudden resignation came just two days before the House Ethics Committee was set to vote on releasing what was described as a “highly damaging” report about the fourth-term lawmaker.
Gaetz has been under ethics investigation on and off since 2021. He was also criminally investigated by the Justice Department for child sex trafficking. The DOJ, which Gaetz is seeking to lead, told Gaetz last year that it wouldn’t bring charges against the Florida Republican. The Ethics Committee then restarted its own wide-ranging probe into Gaetz.
This chain of events — and series of unforced errors — neatly encapsulates everything that maddened Republicans about Trump’s style of governance. He’s nominated someone that can’t get confirmed. He’s ignoring House Republicans’ pleas to stop poaching their members. And Trump has stepped all over the rollout of other well-qualified nominees.
The House GOP’s vanishing majority. Trump tapped Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to be ambassador to the United Nations and Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser. Having Trump nominate Gaetz — and Gaetz’s sudden resignation — reduces Johnson’s current margin to just four votes (220 Republicans, 213 Democrats.) It could be even tighter at the start of the next Congress.
“I have begged and pleaded with the new president, ‘Enough already.’ Because our numbers are small,” Johnson said on a day when he should’ve been celebrating being renominated as speaker by his colleagues.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Johnson are scheduled to have a phone call this morning to discuss timing for special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz.
Early test for Thune: The Gaetz debacle came less than two hours after incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune declared that Republicans would do “everything we can to process his [nominees] quickly.”
As we wrote in Wednesday’s PM edition, many Senate Republicans see no path to confirmation for Gaetz. At least three GOP senators have already made calls to Trump’s inner circle pleading for a course reversal, sources told us.
Whether Trump intended it or not, this is an early test for Thune and the new Senate GOP leadership team. So far, Thune isn’t breaking with Trump publicly, saying only that the Senate will do its due diligence on Gaetz’s nomination.
Yet at a certain point, if Trump insists on moving ahead with Gaetz, Thune and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — the incoming No. 2 Senate Republican — could be forced to tell Trump that the votes simply aren’t there.
The same could happen with Gabbard’s nomination. Incensed by Gabbard’s isolationist views and penchant for conspiracy theories, some GOP national security hawks are already discussing ways to derail her nomination, according to two senators familiar with the matter. The Senate Intelligence Committee will be charged with vetting Gabbard. The former lawmaker will also have to undergo an FBI background check.
Thune has meetings scheduled today with his new leadership team and incoming committee leaders. One silver lining on nominations? Thune will be more than happy to push through Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). DeSantis will get to choose someone to replace Rubio.
A mandate, but, but, but … Trump and Hill Republicans have taken to saying the 2024 election provided the president-elect with a mandate.
But a mandate means nothing unless Trump knows how to use it. He needs to govern in a partnership with House and Senate Republicans. With that approach, Trump can get a lot done. Without it, the press will have plenty to write about, but the House and Senate floor will be quiet. Trump can try to force things to happen on his own. But if Trump simply works with the Hill within the bounds given to him by voters, he can get a lot more done.
Rand to HELP? Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told us he’ll make an announcement this morning on whether he’ll try to leapfrog Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) to claim the gavel of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. Paul was expected to remain atop the Homeland Security Committee as its chair next year, but he has seniority over Cassidy on HELP and there’s speculation that he could choose that gavel instead.
