Today is the last day of January. This makes it the perfect time to take a look at the four leaders at the center of our coverage at Punchbowl News: Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
We interviewed Schumer on Thursday afternoon. Let’s start with the others.
Speaker Mike Johnson. It was Johnson’s birthday on Thursday. He’s now 53 years old. Happy birthday, Mr. Speaker.
House Republicans just wrapped up their legislative retreat at Trump National Doral Miami. And it was a modestly successful event. There were no big screaming matches, at least not in person. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance entertained the GOP rank-and-file.
But we think Johnson’s public prediction that he’ll be able to pass a massive reconciliation package by the Easter break is wildly optimistic — and that’s putting it nicely. Johnson has started telling people that May is a more realistic deadline, and we’re even uncertain of that.
Some senior House GOP aides now doubt that Johnson will be able to get the budget resolution needed to unlock reconciliation out of the Budget Committee next week. Remember: Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) sit on the panel, and Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) can only lose two votes.
Johnson has several problems right now. Rank-and-file House Republicans feel as if they have no idea where the reconciliation process is going. It seems exceedingly unlikely that Republicans will be able to craft a single package that lifts the SALT cap, extends the Trump tax cuts, slashes the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, eliminates taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime, fixes the border and boosts military spending while also cutting social spending. With Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) expected confirmation next week, House Republicans will only have a one-vote margin until early April.
Johnson also made the decision last year to extend government funding until March. We noted at the time that this could be a strategic blunder. Now the shutdown deadline is approaching with no funding deal in sight. And not only does Johnson have to fund federal agencies in the midst of the reconciliation fight, he has a president who wants the debt limit raised until 2029. Plus, Congress must pass an expensive California wildfire aid package in the coming months. Johnson will need Democrats for this.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Thune is only a few weeks into his new role and he’s already facing some big challenges.
Managing confirmation of Trump’s Cabinet nominees is going well overall; eight have been confirmed so far with more votes looming next week. But some significant hurdles remain, including former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (Hawaii) for director of national intelligence, Kash Patel for FBI director and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS secretary.
Getting a massive reconciliation package through the Senate will be difficult. Senate Republicans are still pushing for two bills — one with defense, border security and energy provisions, the second focused on extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. As we noted, House and Senate Republicans are nowhere close to agreeing on an FY2025 funding topline among themselves, much less with Democrats.
Yet Thune and his new leadership team — Majority Whip John Barrasso and GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton — are grinding through it. Thune also gets credit for trying to speed up Senate votes, which had become an ordeal by the last Congress. And he helped muscle the Laken Riley Act through the Senate, giving Trump an early win.
The MAGA wing of the Republican Party will never love Thune. He’s too conciliatory and too honest for them. But his GOP colleagues are giving him solid support so far. Wait until Trump gets on Thune about recess appointments and ending the filibuster, however.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Like Schumer, Jeffries has come under pressure from both his moderates and progressives over how to confront Trump and the GOP-run Congress. All the problems playing out in the broader Democratic Party are playing out inside the House Democratic Caucus. It’s a tough time to be a Democratic leader.
Jeffries remains popular with his colleagues, who see him as a speaker in waiting. Johnson will also need Jeffries to pass disaster aid, government funding and a debt-limit hike. What Jeffries can get in return — if anything — is the big question.
As the highest-ranking Black elected official in the country, Jeffries has a special role to play in the Trump era. He’s the voice of minority voters everywhere who look at Trump’s triumphant return and wonder what the future holds. Jeffries was especially upset when Trump blamed Wednesday night’s deadly air crash at Reagan National Airport on DEI with no evidence to back that up:
House Democrats want more of this from Jeffries going forward.
