The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Johnson, Jeffries head down the stretch

House GOP tensions are dragging down a popular bill to protect kids online

Hudson’s tough choice after November

ICYMI: The Future of Defense Aviation series

THE TOP

Johnson, Jeffries head down the stretch

Happy Thursday morning.

Happy Rosh Hashanah to those celebrating. There are 33 days until Election Day.

We want to engage in a semi-frequent Punchbowl News tradition: our Leader Look. We’re going to focus this morning on Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. We’ll look at the Senate leadership tomorrow.

Mike Johnson

One year ago today, the House voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker, triggering the end of his political career and beginning an especially embarrassing period for the House GOP.

On Oct. 25, after stumbling around for three weeks, House Republicans tapped Mike Johnson to be speaker. The 52-year-old Louisiana Republican only served in a minor leadership role at the time. But he also had the most important attribute of all — no one disliked him.

To Johnson’s credit, he’s lasted longer in the job than McCarthy did. And Johnson’s laying the groundwork to run for the gavel again next year should Republicans keep the majority.

Campaign trail: Of course, Johnson’s future in House leadership will hinge on the election results. Johnson has been crisscrossing the country raising cash and stumping for candidates, something he had virtually no experience doing before becoming speaker. But he’s started to grow more comfortable in the role.

In private donor events, we’re told Johnson often refers to himself as “the ambassador of hope.”

Fundraising continues to be a big problem for House Republicans, although Johnson isn’t entirely to blame. Johnson has transferred over $20 million to the NRCC. He’s also traveled to 39 states as speaker. Johnson will be in 24 states during October alone.

Trump ties: Johnson strives incredibly hard to tie himself to former President Donald Trump. Johnson met with the former president twice during the last month and successfully worked to defuse Trump’s calls for a government shutdown. Johnson has tapped Hogan Gidley, a former Trump official, to serve as a consultant.

The speaker even does a pretty spot-on Trump impression, which he’s performed publicly on several occasions, although we’ve been told Trump isn’t a huge fan of Johnson’s act.

Johnson’s strength upon becoming speaker was his ties to conservatives. Yet those relationships have been strained over the last year as he tries to govern in a divided Congress. Democrats had to save Johnson from a conservative-led motion to vacate. He’s been forced to play the Trump card to keep from getting outflanked on the right.

Decision Making: One of the biggest internal critiques of Johnson is that he often keeps his own leadership team in the dark. This was especially true during the most recent debate over government funding.

Johnson initially pushed a six-month CR with the SAVE Act attached — a plan championed by controversial Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.). This privately frustrated other GOP leaders, who saw a clean three-month CR as inevitable. Johnson also leans heavily on his policy director Dan Ziegler when it comes to key policy decisions.

Hakeem Jeffries

In just over a month, the 54-year-old Jeffries will find out if he’s going to make history by becoming the first Black speaker of the House.

If House Democrats don’t take the majority, Jeffries and other party leaders may feel some heat, especially if Harris wins the White House. The House GOP record is abysmal. The DCCC has badly outraised the NRCC. The path to the majority runs through deep blue California and Jeffries’ native New York State. The ascension of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee injected new life into the party. Everything is right there for Jeffries and House Democrats.

The biggest drawback is that, thanks to redistricting, there’s only a handful of House seats in play.

How he performed. Now let’s look at Jeffries’ record, especially over the last few months. Since taking over for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi — who still makes her presence felt in a big way — Jeffries has kept Democrats united through an often tumultuous Congress.

In addition to providing Johnson with the Democratic votes to remain as speaker, Jeffries had to deal with President Joe Biden’s replacement as the Democratic nominee. This was largely a revolt led by House Democrats — with Pelosi playing a starring role — as well as other key players in the Democratic universe, including former President Barack Obama.

That high-profile crisis showed how Jeffries operates under pressure — he holds his cards very close to the vest. Jeffries didn’t tell anyone what he was thinking. He cautiously tiptoed through the warring factions inside his caucus and an angry president. He sought a private meeting with Biden to discuss the situation. And Jeffries didn’t say much afterward beyond showering praise on Biden and Harris.

Jeffries is never going to lead from the front. He isn’t Pelosi. But he’s capable of decisive action when needed. This is how he’d be as speaker.

Big Apple headache. Jeffries and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer face a growing scandal around indicted New York City Mayor Eric Adams. While some high-profile New York Democrats have called for Adams to resign, Jeffries has kept largely mum (as has Schumer.) This will be worth watching closely as events unfold.

– Melanie Zanona, John Bresnahan and Jake Sherman

We’re hiring: Punchbowl News is hiring a deputy editor to join our growing editorial team! Do you have editing experience, a deep knowledge of Capitol Hill and love Punchbowl News? Apply today.

NEW! Join us for a conversation with Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) on Thursday, Oct. 31, at 9:30 a.m. ET. We’ll discuss news of the day and how 5G supports America’s global competitiveness. This is the second event in a two-part series, “5G and America’s Competitiveness,” presented by CTIA. Afterward, we’ll bring our popular Brown Bag series in person with our reporters talking all things 2024, the lame duck and more. RSVP here!

TECH REPORT

House GOP tensions are dragging down a popular bill to protect kids online

Tensions between top members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee and Republican leadership have all but doomed the chance Congress will enact an online kids protection bill when lawmakers return after the election.

Remember, the Senate passed a companion bill in July with 91 votes. And several conservatives close to former President Donald Trump also back the measure.

But the dust-up in the House over the Kids Online Safety Act is the latest example of divisions between retiring Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and leadership, particularly House Majority Leader Steve Scalise. The schism has stalled action on tech and other areas under the committee’s purview.

There’s not much love lost between CMR and Scalise. They’re from different wings of the party. And earlier this year, Scalise quashed an effort by the panel to pass a comprehensive data privacy bill that CMR saw as legacy-defining.

The dire outlook for KOSA is just the latest casualty of the differences between the two senior Republicans.

House GOP leaders have a long list of concerns with KOSA, which would force big social media platforms to design products in a way that mitigates harm to younger users.

Foremost among House GOP leadership’s issues is the heart of the bill — imposing a legal “duty of care” on platforms. Republican leaders contend that the approach could be too onerous for companies and lead to them squelching conservative speech.

These concerns were made clear to CMR and Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), a subcommittee chair who introduced the legislation. The two still decided to go ahead with a Sept. 18 markup to keep the legislation moving. Bilirakis was leading negotiations, but ultimately the decision to hold the markup fell to McMorris Rodgers.

If momentum was the goal, the markup didn’t help.

Energy and Commerce sent the bill to the House floor, but only after amending it by voice vote to narrow the focus to physical harms. The changes outraged some parent groups and Democrats.

Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), who introduced the bill with Bilirakis, complained she might not even be able to support it on the floor.

Some Democrats were even preparing to introduce the broader Senate version as a replacement during the markup. McMorris Rodgers convinced Democrats the bill would face even more opposition if they did, though. She negotiated the voice vote strategy.

Summer Blevins, a spokesperson for Bilirakis, said the office had heard “for months” that the duty of care language needed big changes. Bilirakis and Castor found “a compromise that would address the bulk of those concerns while maintaining the original intent of the bill.”

Spokespeople for Energy and Commerce and Castor declined to comment.

Despite the headwinds, KOSA supporters, including Bilirakis, have floated additional changes to garner increased support in the lame duck. But GOP leaders don’t seem interested.

So what’s next? The bill was originally reported to the House Education and Workforce Committee in addition to Energy and Commerce. GOP leaders are just fine letting another committee, which is unhappy with the power the bill puts in the hands of the Education Department, take its time combing through the text.

— Ben Brody

HOUSE GOP LEADERSHIP

Hudson’s tough choice after November

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson has a lot at stake on Nov. 5. The election results won’t only determine the balance of power in the House. They’ll also dictate Hudson’s own political future. So let’s get into it.

If House Republicans keep the majority — and certainly if they expand their razor-thin margin — the North Carolina Republican will have options, according to multiple senior GOP sources.

Hudson, a 52-year-old former House aide, could lead the House GOP’s campaign arm for another cycle. His colleagues would likely be eager to reward Hudson with two years helming the NRCC after a successful election if he wants it. But Hudson could also make a play for the House Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship — a prized gavel that is up for grabs next Congress.

A committee chairmanship has more political longevity since Hudson could have the role for up to six years under House GOP rules. Not to mention that if former President Donald Trump wins, the 2026 midterms could be brutal for House Republicans since the party in charge of the White House tends to suffer during the next election. So the NRCC chair will have a difficult job, to say the least.

There’s no guarantee Hudson would get the Energy and Commerce gavel, although he’d be a strong contender. Hudson is not as senior as the other two Republicans – Reps. Brett Guthrie (Ky.) and Bob Latta (Ohio) — who have been openly running for the post for months. Plus, committee chairmanships aren’t doled out until after the NRCC post is decided, so it’s a risk for Hudson to pass up the NRCC job for a less certain bet.

If House Republicans lose the majority, however, it’s unclear what Hudson will do and whether he’ll have an obvious landing spot. But there will likely be plenty of finger-pointing inside the GOP, and the NRCC chair — whether fairly or not — will probably shoulder some of the blame.

For his part, Hudson says he’s solely focused on expanding the majority. And even some of Hudson’s closest allies are unsure of what he will do after November. “I am 100% focused on my job as NRCC chairman and serving the people of NC-09,” Hudson said in a statement. “I haven’t spent one second thinking about anything else.” Come on, not even one second?

Other NRCC contenders: Even as Hudson’s plans remain unknown, we have been hearing names of Republicans who are potentially interested in leading the NRCC next year, should there be an opening. Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.), a businessman who came to Congress in 2022, has been quietly exploring a bid, according to multiple GOP sources. A source close to Yakym confirmed he’d be interested but said his current focus is helping Hudson hold the majority.

Other names that have been floated include Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), vice chair of recruitment for the NRCC, and House GOP candidate Brian Jack, a former Trump adviser running for a safe red seat in Georgia. Jack also ran former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s political operation. Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas), who is currently running for RSC chair, has raised a boatload of cash and many believe he’d be a strong NRCC chair. But it’s still far too early to know who will actually throw their hat into the ring.

One thing worth noting: The NRCC has never had a woman as chair. So it will be interesting to see whether that becomes a factor should a Republican woman jump into the race.

– Melanie Zanona

FUTURE OF

ICYMI: The Future of Defense Aviation series

Over the last four weeks, we’ve been exploring factors shaping the U.S. air defense sector, including the funding and policy decisions through our series, The Future of Defense Aviation.

The United States boasts the world’s top defense production, which serves as a major deterrent for foes and an assurance for allies. The rising risk of global conflicts has, however, forced the Department of Defense and other players to change their approach to the country’s aero-defense capabilities.

Maintaining a robust stockpile of defense aviation equipment that keeps up with the latest technology all depends on how efficiently Congress can deliver the funds needed to meet the rising demand.

Congress’ slow legislative pace — often bogged down by political maneuvering and deal-making — has frustrated the defense community, particularly the contractors who supply the needed equipment.

To understand these dynamics, we broke down the series into four parts. Follow the links below to read them and listen to the corresponding podcasts.

The State of Play: Where things stand in the sector today and the outlook for its future.

The Legislative Landscape: The legislative prospects in Congress that determine key policies and funding for the DoD’s aviation defense programs.

A Leading Voice: An interview with a key lawmaker heavily involved in the issue.

The Players: A roundup of some of the key lawmakers, government units and trade groups shaping the industry.

As always, thank you for reading The Future of Defense Aviation.

– Elvina Nawaguna

THE MONEY GAME

News: Democrat Curtis Hertel, who’s running against Republican Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District, raised over $2.5 million in Q3. This is a significant haul in an open seat that’s being vacated by Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) Senate bid.

Hertel has trailed Barrett in recent polls, which would be a consequential pickup for the GOP as the party seeks to defend its House majority.

In Montana’s 1st District: Democrat Monica Tranel raised nearly $2.2 million in the third quarter. Tranel has raised nearly $5.3 million all cycle in her challenge against Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.).

— Max Cohen

MOMENTS

CLIPS