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October 6, 2023
Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.
PRESENTED BY
THE TOP
Happy Friday morning.
Breaking news: Fox News’ Bret Baier will host a closed debate and discussion between the GOP candidates for speaker Monday night, according to a source involved with the planning.
As of now, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and RSC Chair Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) will participate. Hern hasn’t officially entered the speaker race.
House Republicans will host a candidate forum Tuesday night and the closed party election Wednesday. There is no timeline for electing a speaker on the House floor.
The latest: This is a very unusual race for speaker. There’s no other way to say it.
The stunning ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy has left House Republicans in completely uncharted territory, with no one quite certain how to get them back on track.
Neither current candidate to succeed McCarthy — Jordan or Scalise — has a clear lead in endorsements. Neither has shown a ton of momentum up to this point. While unquestionably liked and respected by their Republican colleagues — even admired — there are lots of questions lingering about both men. These range from their ability to raise the big sums needed in modern-day House politics to the likelihood that either can unify the Republican Conference’s bitterly warring factions.
Jordan got what could prove to be a major boost on Thursday night when former President Donald Trump endorsed him.
Yet even a Trump endorsement — with all that it carries — may not get Jordan to 218. Although we keep hearing that people like Jordan because he’s not currently in the leadership and can control the hardliners.
Based on our conversations with lawmakers, aides, backers of Scalise and Jordan and uncommitted House Republicans, it seems highly unlikely that a speaker will be chosen and approved on the House floor by next week.
What they’re doing today: Scalise and Jordan are talking to the House Freedom Caucus, the Western Caucus and the freshmen class today.
At this point, about one-quarter of the 221 House Republicans have committed publicly to Jordan or Scalise. Meaning neither is remotely close to nailing down a majority of the conference, let alone the 218 votes needed on the floor.
So we wanted to walk through a few dynamics that are bubbling up inside the GOP conference.
The MTV reform crew. Forty-five House Republicans, including several power players, have written a letter to the conference effectively demanding changes to the motion-to-vacate rule that cost McCarthy his job.
Here’s the letter. A few members who signed this letter say they’re not willing to endorse for speaker until the MTV is overhauled. Important names on here include Reps. Stephanie Bice (Okla.); Dusty Johnson (S.D.), a member of the leadership; Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), a leading moderate; Rep. Garret Graves (La.), a close McCarthy ally; Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul (Texas); and Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (Mo.).
This faction is 45 strong, as we noted, so this is something we’ll keep a very close eye on.
PMC rising? Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry has a serious title but little real power, as detailed here by the Democrats on the Rules Committee. Sure, he has a security detail. Beyond that, House officials say McHenry can’t do much of anything except oversee a speaker election.
Yet in recent days, McHenry has heard from a number of lawmakers who have told him he should consider a bid for the speakership. McHenry has resisted entreaties to run for leadership in the past. He passed on a bid for whip at the start of this Congress.
Others to watch as popular backup options include Reps. French Hill (R-Ark.), Steve Womack (R-Ark.) and Tom Cole (R-Okla.). There could be more members thrown into the mix if there’s a stalemate and Republicans seek a consensus candidate.
How about a McCarthy encore? We’ve heard some House Republicans suggest they’ll nominate McCarthy to be speaker once again in the closed House GOP election. One source postulated to us that Republicans will eventually come around to the reality that no one else can get to 218 — and then come back to McCarthy.
Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) said this in a statement Thursday: “The only workable outcome is to restore Kevin McCarthy as Speaker under party rules that respect and enforce the right of the majority party to elect him.”
But McCarthy can’t get to 218 either, so it doesn’t matter much. This will be an interesting dynamic to watch, however.
218 in the room: There’s been a push by some — including Graves — to hold off on any speaker vote on the floor until 218 Republicans have formally agreed to back a nominee.
This would require a change of the House GOP rules and there are lots of questions about how it would work.
The driving dynamic at play here is Republicans don’t want to go to the floor and look like a bunch of clowns again by going through 15 rounds of voting.
The fundraising rush: One of the main jobs of a modern speaker is to raise money. And lots of ink has been spilled on McCarthy’s fundraising abilities. We get it. He was a really good fundraiser. But he got deposed. So Republicans have to find another really good fundraiser.
Scalise has raised nearly $170 million to support Republicans during the last decade. Scalise raised more last cycle — $53 million — than the $38 million Jordan raised over the last decade, according to a Scalise-aligned source. Scalise has given $50 million to the NRCC over the last five years.
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
NEW: We’re on the road again! Join Punchbowl News founders Anna Palmer and Jake Sherman as well as Arkansas Republican Sens. John Boozman and Tom Cotton on Friday, Oct. 27 at 1 p.m. CT/2 p.m. ET in Little Rock, Ark. They’ll discuss the challenges facing small business owners in rural America. RSVP now! It’s the third event in our series, “Small Business, America’s Future,” presented by Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses.
TICK, TICK, TICK…
Doubts emerge on government funding with House chaos, Senate out
The Senate is in recess until Oct. 16 and has yet to pass any of the 12 annual spending bills that were overwhelmingly approved in the Appropriations Committee. The House — which has passed a few bills on party line vote — doesn’t have a speaker and may not get one for weeks.
Oh, and government funding expires on Nov. 17.
We wanted to take a step back and dive into the various dynamics playing out in the appropriations process. Although Congress barely avoided one government shutdown last week. And time is quickly running out for party leaders to deliver on their promise to conference all 12 FY2024 spending bills and forgo a massive year-end omnibus package.
Let’s start in the House. The House has passed four spending bills to date, virtually along party lines.
But with the House unable to consider any more appropriations bills until it elects a speaker, the odds that Congress will need to pass another continuing resolution to keep the government open past mid-November are increasing dramatically.
Republicans opposed to the decision to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy noted that the House will have wasted two weeks — at a minimum — of potential work on appropriations bills. That’s the very thing that McCarthy’s detractors were complaining about in the first place — that the House was behind schedule on FY2024 appropriations.
Here’s how Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former House member, described those who ousted McCarthy:
Over to the Senate. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said the chamber will try once again to secure a time agreement to vote on the first three-bill minibus package and consider various amendments to that legislation.
This minibus includes the Military Construction-VA, Agriculture and Transportation-HUD spending bills, some of the least controversial of the 12 annual measures.
But Senate GOP conservatives, led by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), withheld support for a necessary procedural step after complaining that the Senate was combining three bills into one. These Republicans wanted to vote on each bill separately, which could’ve added weeks to the process.
Johnson has since softened his position. The Wisconsin Republican now says he’ll give consent if the Senate holds a vote on legislation aimed at preventing government shutdowns from impacting agencies and departments beyond the legislative branch.
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) could also hold up the process and demand a floor vote on the Credit Card Competition Act, as he did last month when the Senate first brought up the minibus.
Schumer said this week that he’s working to secure a time agreement on the minibus “as soon as possible” so that the Senate can return to it the week of Oct. 16. But Republicans are upping the pressure on the majority leader over the calendar.
Schumer’s decision to keep the Senate’s previously scheduled recess in place next week led to an outcry among some Republicans. They want the chamber to stay in session until all 12 bills are finished.
A separate group of 20 GOP senators signed a letter saying they’ll withhold their support for “any vote to proceed to items unrelated to appropriations bills.”
— Andrew Desiderio
THE FUTURE OF…
ICYMI: Punchbowl News launches The Future of Cybersecurity special
We launched our latest editorial product, The Future of Cybersecurity, on Tuesday. Timed to coincide with Cybersecurity Awareness Month, the four-part series will explore the issue all month with new segments out every Tuesday. And we have a podcast too!
In this week’s issue, we looked at the state of play for cybersecurity in Congress, industry and the administration. Cybersecurity is, of course, a concern for almost everyone, lawmakers included. And while the rise of artificial intelligence offers potential benefits including job creation, it makes regulating cybersecurity a lot more complicated than it already is. Congress and the administration have been playing catch-up for a while now.
Next Tuesday, we’ll dive into the legislative landscape for cybersecurity — and by extension, AI — as lawmakers seek ways to protect individual Americans, government systems, private companies and more. Be sure to stop by Tuesday morning and check it out at this link.
PRESENTED BY WALMART
Walmart has spent nearly $1 billion with veteran-owned businesses like Bon AppéSweet, helping Navy veteran Thereasa Black and her small business gain nationwide success.
THE CAMPAIGN
Arizona will be a fascinating state to watch in 2024. With a blockbuster Senate race featuring three major candidates and a host of competitive House seats, all eyes will be on the Grand Canyon State. We have two pieces of news today on the House side.
Arizona’s 1st District: Two major labor unions — the National Education Association and the Arizona Education Association — are endorsing Marlene Galán-Woods in the Democratic primary.
Galán-Woods is seeking to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), one of the 18 House Republicans who represent districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020. Galán-Woods is a former broadcast journalist and was married to Arizona’s former GOP attorney general Grant Woods.
Arizona’s 3rd District: The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC is endorsing Raquel Terán in the primary to fill Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Ariz.) seat. Terán has served in the state House and Senate, and is a longtime organizer for immigrant rights. If elected, Terán would be Arizona’s first Latina member of Congress.
Q3 fundraising update: Frontline Democratic Rep. Eric Sorensen (Ill.) raised $475,000 in the third quarter and has $1.1 million on hand.
— Max Cohen
PUNCHBOWL NEWS FAMILY
Welcome Dave and we’re hiring!
We’re excited to announce the newest member of the Punchbowl News team, Dave Gelsomino. Dave is joining us as our director of client engagement. He was most recently at Morning Consult. Prior to that, he worked at Politico. A Rhode Island native, Dave has been in D.C. since he arrived at George Washington University for his undergraduate studies.
We’re also excited to share that we have three jobs we’re hiring for as we look to continue to expand our editorial and business teams: Financial Services Reporter, Policy Editor, and Director of Business Development.
Interested in joining our team? Check out our available jobs and apply here.
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Presented by AARP
48 million family caregivers give everything to help older loved ones. They give time and energy, too often giving up their jobs and paying over $7,000 a year out of pocket. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit.