Schumer on the shutdown: 'Every day gets better for us'

IN THIS EDITION

Why Schumer thinks Dems have momentum

Republicans hit roadblock in Missouri redistricting

Tech: Democratic senators embrace TikTok

Crypto, money, politics

The Creator Economy: Offline to online

THE TOP

Why Schumer thinks Dems have momentum

Happy Thursday morning.

Ceasefire in the Middle East. President Donald Trump has notched a ceasefire-and-hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas. The White House announced that Trump will travel to Jerusalem in the coming days.

Hamas is slated to release every living hostage, while Israel will pull back its forces and release Palestinian prisoners. If this all works out as hoped, it may prove to be the biggest achievement of Trump’s two terms in office.

Democrats lean in. It’s Day 9 of the government shutdown. There’s no resolution in sight to this crisis.

When you take stock of where things stand, it’s not difficult to see why House and Senate Democrats feel good about their strategy — for now.

It’s important to note that Democrats instigated this shutdown. They rejected a “clean” funding proposal and demanded significant and expensive health care policy changes in exchange for their votes.

But as we enter the second week of the standoff, Democrats are nowhere close to buckling. In fact, top Democrats feel like they’re gaining political momentum.

We interviewed Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday in his Capitol office, where the New York Democrat was as bullish as he’s ever been about his shutdown strategy.

“Every day gets better for us,” Schumer asserted.

Schumer is right that he’s been able to block the clean CR for much longer than most Republicans — and many House Democrats — thought. After three Senate Democrats peeled off during the first day of floor votes, Schumer has stopped any further defections.

Some of this is because Trump isn’t fully dialed into the funding crisis. The president veered way off-message earlier this week when he said he wants an Obamacare deal without specifying that the government has to reopen first.

What Schumer is banking on is that Trump gets engaged at some point and wants to cut a deal on Obamacare subsidies to reopen the government.

There’s been no real sign of this yet, even as Schumer insists Republicans are “feeling the heat.” Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and many Trump aides remain confident they have the upper hand. Trump is essentially letting Johnson and Thune run the show.

Why Democrats feel good. Trump and top administration officials have threatened to enact mass layoffs, restructure federal agencies and cut benefits during a shutdown. They’ve done none of that up until now. We’ll see what happens at Trump’s Cabinet meeting today.

Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought did cut billions of dollars in federal energy and infrastructure projects in blue states. But that had the effect of stiffening Democrats’ spines.

“Every time they try something, it doesn’t quite work,” Schumer said. “Even the threat of shutting things — ‘We’re gonna close this, we’re gonna close that.’ It’s [reflecting] at least as negative on them as it is on us. I think more so on them.”

The Trump administration said it would try to use tariff revenue to bolster the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) nutrition program, which is in danger of running out of money this week. This would remove a key pain point for the shutdown and make Democrats feel more comfortable dragging it out.

House Democrats are drawing deeper lines in the sand, too. Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Massachusetts Rep. Richard Neal, the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, said they could never accept a one-year extension of enhanced premium tax credits for Obamacare.

Jeffries’ declaration, however, puts Schumer in a tough spot. Schumer has pushed for a bipartisan negotiation, which means compromising on the Democrats’ demand of a permanent extension. When we pointed out to Schumer that he hasn’t drawn similar red lines, Schumer responded: “I don’t negotiate in public.”

Inside Schumer’s strategy. Since the shutdown, Schumer has lobbied the top echelon of the Democratic Party to rally to his cause. The New York Democrat has spoken with former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, among others.

Schumer, who caught major flak in March for helping Republicans fund the government, said he’s never had to recharge his signature flip phone more. And while the aforementioned Democrats are important, Schumer is much more concerned with his own caucus. That means trying to ensure he doesn’t repeat the mistakes from March or jeopardize his standing as Senate Democratic leader.

“We knew that this would be a hard fight. It is still a hard fight,” Schumer said, nodding to the pain of a shutdown. “But every day we’re getting better and better as the message sinks in more and more deeply.”

There are plenty of potential pitfalls with Schumer’s strategy. Schumer keeps saying an Obamacare deal can come together quickly — “in a day or two” — to end the shutdown. That assessment ignores the reality that this will be a very complicated, drawn-out negotiation given that wide swaths of Hill Republicans don’t want an Obamacare subsidy extension at all.

Schumer said he’s had zero contact with the Trump administration since the Big Four meeting last week.

But as this showdown drags on and polls show that the public blames the GOP, Trump may grow sick of this and conclude that failing to get a quick deal on Obamacare subsidies will hurt him politically. Here’s Schumer:

Rising tensions. Another reason Democrats feel the wind at their backs is that Republicans are a bit all over the place.

The House has been out of session now for 20 days. Endangered Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) said Johnson “shouldn’t even think about canceling session for a third straight week.” Johnson will hold an 11:30 a.m. call this morning with House Republicans.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio, Max Cohen and Laura Weiss

Join us today at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.). We’ll discuss the news of the day, 5G and spectrum policy. RSVP now!

REDISTRICTING WARS

Republicans hit roadblock in Missouri redistricting

Missouri GOP Gov. Mike Kehoe signed his state’s new congressional map into law last month, but it is far from a done deal.

Some Republicans are growing concerned that Democrats may be on the verge of success in their Hail Mary attempt to block the new map from going into effect for the midterms.

If Democrats can get roughly 110,000 valid signatures by mid-December, they can trigger a referendum on the new map next year. That likely would save Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) for at least two more years and longer if voters reject the proposal. The new GOP-drawn map turns Cleaver’s Kansas City-based seat deep red.

This is a tough goal for Democrats for a few reasons. They have a tight timeline. And they’ll need far more than the required number of signatures because many of these will be tossed out as invalid.

But Republicans in Washington and Missouri say the Democratic signature-gathering effort is well-funded and organized. And some fear it might just work. Democrats report that they’re hitting their daily quotas.

Yet even if they get the signatures, it could still be a brutal battle to convince voters in a red state to reject a map endorsed by President Donald Trump. And it will be expensive; just look at California.

Indiana. Vice President JD Vance is going back to the Hoosier State on Friday in the clearest sign yet that the White House’s ongoing push to get state legislators to redistrict is stalling.

GOP Gov. Mike Braun has been publicly supportive of the effort in recent weeks. But he hasn’t called a special session for Indiana legislators to draw a new map.

“It’s just starting to show where there may be some risk-averseness in the… state Senate,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told us. “I hear from House members that they’re willing for the most part. But I think that’s where the Senate leadership needs to really step up and support President Trump.”

Vance will need to make clear that the White House is serious about pushing through a new map, and those who resist could face political ramifications.

California. The roadblocks in Indiana and Missouri are compounded by mounting fears that Republicans will not be able to block Democrats’ redistricting ballot measure in California.

To aid that effort, Speaker Mike Johnson recently transferred $1 million to the California GOP from his various fundraising committees. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with close ties to Johnson, also gave an additional $5 million to block the measure. The state GOP does not typically run TV ads but handles a lot of GOTV.

— Ally Mutnick and Laura Weiss

… AND THERE’S MORE

Crypto, money, politics

First in Punchbowl News: A top national crypto trade association is shoring up its ground game with a state-focused partnership.

The North American Blockchain Association will announce a “strategic alliance” with the Blockchain Association today. NABA focuses on state policy, while the BA is focused on federal policy. The two groups will coordinate their state- and federal-level advocacy as regulators move to implement the GENIUS Act, which Congress passed in July to regulate stablecoins.

The Money Game. Sandy Roberson, the Republican mayor of Rocky Mount, N.C., raised $252,000 in the third quarter for his campaign to knock off Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.). Davis is one of the most endangered House Democrats and represents a district President Donald Trump won in 2024.

Roberson has $2.4 million on hand after giving his campaign $2 million upon entering the race in June. Roberson ran for the 1st District in 2022 and received the backing of party leaders, but lost in the primary.

Endorsement news. 314 Action, the Democratic group backing STEM-connected professionals, is endorsing two Democrats: state Rep. Manny Rutinel in Colorado’s 7th District and Thomas Fisher in Illinois’ 7th District.

— Brendan Pedersen and Max Cohen

THE CREATOR ECONOMY

The Creator Economy: Offline to online

Old businesses are finding new lives in the creator economy by sharing their brick-and-mortar legacies on YouTube.

Today, we’re releasing the fourth feature in our series, The Creator Economy, in partnership with YouTube. It’s the final entry in our exploration of the role creators play in the modern economy and how those shifts affect policy conversations in Washington.

In this feature, Offline to Online, we spoke with the Andrianos family of Hercules Candy, both the storefront in East Syracuse, N.Y., and the popular YouTube account.

More than a century after Steve Andrianos’ grandfather came to the United States and founded Hercules Candy, the family and staff slice caramels, bend green apple ribbons and gently tease each other on camera for more than one million followers.

Steve and his wife, Terry Andrianos, run the store. Since 2016, their son, Craig Andrianos, has managed its YouTube presence.

Thanks to YouTube, Hercules Candy moved to a bigger space, hired up and shipped as many sweets during the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic as they’d normally fulfill during the busy holiday season.

“It wouldn’t have happened without YouTube,” Terry Andrianos said.

Of course, we always dig into the policy too. We spoke with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), an advocate for the creator economy, and House Small Business Committee Chair Roger Williams (R-Texas).

“The committee is working to advance policies that cut red tape, safeguard innovation and creative content, and protect the new generation of small businesses,” Williams told us.

And don’t forget to catch up on our previous entries in the series, including our dive into the content to commerce pipeline with Cassey Ho.

– Ben Brody

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