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IN THIS EDITION

Democrats’ TikTok dilemma

Freedom Caucus-backed freshmen aren’t joining hardline group yet

Shaheen rises in foreign policy world

Cocktails & Conversation: Inauguration 2025

THE TOP

Democrats’ TikTok dilemma

Happy Friday morning.

Democrats thought they’d be able to back the Chinese government into a corner with legislation forcing the sale of TikTok, dodging national security concerns as well as any backlash from their political base.

Their gambit may have backfired.

Top Hill Democrats are engineering an eleventh-hour push to stave off the looming shutdown of the popular social media platform, despite having largely backed the 2024 law that gave Chinese-owned ByteDance until Sunday to divest from TikTok.

In an unusual alliance, Democrats are siding with President-elect Donald Trump while congressional Republicans have no qualms about letting TikTok go dark.

President Joe Biden threw lawmakers a lifeline late Thursday following reports that the administration would kick the issue to Trump by declining to enforce the law on Sunday, the day before Trump’s inauguration.

Still, there’s no long-term certainty. Trump and his national security aides have said they want to try to keep TikTok available in the United States, but they haven’t provided specifics.

Intense lobbying: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer appealed directly to Biden to invoke a provision in the law that allows the president to extend the deadline by 90 days if there’s evidence of “significant progress” toward a divestiture deal. Schumer spoke with Biden on Thursday.

“It’s clear that more time is needed to find an American buyer and not disrupt the lives and livelihoods of millions of Americans, of so many influencers who have built up a good network of followers,” Schumer said on the Senate floor, while also acknowledging the national security risks.

Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, told us billionaire Frank McCourt’s bid to buy TikTok and rumors around Elon Musk also having an interest in acquiring the app show there’s movement toward a deal.

The White House said Biden won’t grant the 90-day extension because ByteDance hasn’t shown there’s a credible plan for a sale in the works. NBC reported Thursday night that the Biden administration won’t fine TikTok’s U.S. business partners under the law. If the companies are willing to accept informal assurances they won’t face steep fines, they could let the app remain available on Americans’ phones or maintain user data.

The Supreme Court could also step in and delay the ban — a potential escape hatch that could come as soon as this morning. The justices are planning an unusual public release of opinions.

If the White House and Supreme Court decline to act, Democrats are staring down the consequences of a TikTok ban, namely the public backlash likely to come from getting rid of one of the most popular apps with young voters.

Hindsight is 20/20: TikTok has 170 million U.S. users, and it’s home to 7 million businesses, according to the app. The potential ban is one of the hottest topics on TikTok.

“No matter how people feel about it, whether they were in support or opposition to it, this is going to have a cultural effect,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), a regular social media user with broad appeal among young voters.

The TikTok bill got a standalone House vote last year and was later included in the massive foreign aid package in April. But the TikTok measure didn’t get nearly as much attention as tens of billions of dollars in military aid for Ukraine, the most contentious issue among congressional Republicans.

What made Schumer’s posture Thursday even more extraordinary was the fact that he was practically radio-silent on TikTok as it was being debated last year, deferring to his caucus’ national security hands like Warner.

Partisan lines blurred: Some Democrats want the White House to see the shutdown of the app in political or economic — rather than national security — terms.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), an opponent of the ban based on free speech concerns, tried unsuccessfully to pass a bill granting a 270-day extension this week.

“My hope is that we can create the conditions where, even if the ban goes into effect on Sunday, it’s very clear that Donald Trump will do everything he can on Monday to revive it,” Markey said.

Top Republicans, meanwhile, continue to be supportive of the law as written despite Trump’s attempts to save the app.

Sen. Tom Cotton (Ark.), the No. 3 Senate Republican and Intelligence Committee chair, blocked Markey’s bill on Wednesday, saying the Chinese government has had “plenty of time to make a deal.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who heads the Senate Commerce Committee, and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.), chair of House Energy and Commerce, told us they support the law and the incoming ban.

Here’s Cruz when we asked what he thought of TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew’s expected appearance at Trump’s inauguration:

Very few Republicans, however, are directly addressing Trump’s friendly posture toward TikTok. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Trump’s incoming secretary of state, has been Congress’ loudest critic of TikTok over the years. But Rubio told us last week that he’d defer to Trump.

— Andrew Desiderio, Diego Areas Munhoz and Ben Brody

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FRESH FREEDOM

Freedom Caucus-backed freshmen aren’t joining hardline group yet

First-term House Republicans who won their seats with the help of the House Freedom Caucus’ political arm aren’t making any promises they’ll join the group now that they’re in office.

Several freshmen backed by the House Freedom Fund are noncommittal about becoming members of the hard right group. The HFC has fewer members in this Congress than last due to retirements, resignations and electoral defeats.

Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.), a founding member of the group in 2015, says the political environment is different in a GOP trifecta than when he was battling the Obama administration as the group first launched.

“Wherever I land, whatever we do, we want to just make sure that the Republican conference is successful this time with the trifecta,” Stutzman told us.

Rep. Bob Onder (R-Mo.), who was also backed by the House Freedom Fund, said he isn’t sure yet whether he wants to join the group, though he did appear on the HFC podcast earlier this month along with Rep. Nick Begich (R-Alaska).

“I haven’t decided that yet,” Onder said. “It’s a matter of how we can best advance the Trump conservative agenda.”

Staffers for Rep. Mark Harris (R-N.C.), who was also supported by the caucus, said he hasn’t joined any caucuses yet either.

Still, HFC board members predict they can gain between three and five members after invitations have formally been extended.

Begich, who didn’t respond to inquiries about joining the group, is a top HFC hopeful. HFC aides phone-banked for the candidate during the campaign in a bid to help him flip Alaska’s sole congressional seat.

Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), who has attended some HFC meetings already, is also expected to join if asked.

Cash concerns: The House Freedom Fund severely struggled with its fundraising efforts last cycle after pouring much of its resources into a failed attempt to fend off a primary challenger to save ex-HFC Chair Bob Good (R-Va.). We wrote about the tumultuous fallout for the HFC’s political apparatus here.

The HFF also lost a series of primaries in which they backed challengers to incumbent Republicans in an effort to grow the caucus’ ranks.

Additionally, the fundraising arm had to deal with trying to protect incumbents in closer-than-expected races. Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC loathed by conservatives, stepped in at the last minute to boost Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who won his race by just 2 points.

HFF has given money to candidates in the past who didn’t end up joining the caucus. HFF was heavily involved in Wyoming GOP Rep. Harriet Hageman’s primary bid to unseat ex-Rep. Liz Cheney in 2022 and backed now-Sen. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) in his first congressional race. Neither Hageman nor Banks joined HFC.

However, sources close to HFC said there’s been general concern about the direction of the group since it lost a slew of members in the last Congress. Under Good’s leadership, several members were booted from the group, which prompted frustration among the remaining group members. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) quit the caucus after Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) was kicked out.

We also recently wrote about some of the tension between Trump World and HFC, which has prompted some competing caucuses to contend against HFC to become Trump’s top Hill allies.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a founding Freedom Caucus member and close Donald Trump confidante, just re-joined the Republican Study Committee, though he told us he will continue to remain active in HFC.

— Mica Soellner

THE SENATE

Shaheen rises in foreign policy world

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has produced presidents and secretaries of state. It has tackled some of the most vexing foreign policy challenges and has a long history of bipartisanship.

But the panel has strayed from that ethos in recent years. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) thinks she has the right formula to help restore it.

Shaheen, 77, is the committee’s new top Democrat. For most of her decade-plus tenure on the panel, she was the only woman. Now, Shaheen is the first woman from either party to take on a leadership role for the committee.

Shaheen has a uniquely close relationship with the panel’s Republican chair, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho. They’ve met several times to discuss shared priorities and how the committee can be restored to basic functionality after a year-plus of total paralysis and a multi-year descent into hyper-partisanship.

“If we can make the committee work better, that’s a first step,” Shaheen told us in a recent interview. “And that’s important to do.”

Starting anew: As we reported on extensively last year, the Foreign Relations Committee went more than eight months without holding a business meeting, causing nominations and legislation to pile up.

The dispute centered on Risch’s demand that the panel vote on a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court. With Republicans now in charge of the Senate, the legislation will get a floor vote in the coming weeks, as we scooped.

So the 119th Congress presents the historically productive committee with an opportunity for a “reset,” of sorts.

To that end, Shaheen sees value in empowering women to roles like the one she now has, noting that countries with female leaders tend to be more stable. Shaheen also wants to advance and support the Women, Peace and Security initiative at NATO, which aims to bring more women to the table to resolve diplomatic crises.

“Women have different life experiences than men. They’re not better, they’re not worse. But they’re different,” Shaheen said. “And it’s important to have that perspective at the table.”

Shaheen could make even more history if she becomes chair of the powerful panel. In order to have a chance to get there, she’d need to run for reelection in 2026. Shaheen hasn’t yet made up her mind, but she suggested this is a consideration.

“The chance to continue to work on issues with respect to foreign policy is certainly something I will factor into that decision, which I haven’t made yet,” Shaheen said.

A friendship: Shaheen and Risch have more in common than is widely known. They both came into the Senate in 2009 and previously served as governors.

This also isn’t the first time they’ve served simultaneously as chair and ranking member of a Senate committee. They overlapped in those roles on the Small Business Committee. They also travel together frequently and have been in lock-step when it comes to supporting Ukraine.

To be sure, their relationship will be put to the test by several nominees during the incoming Trump administration. And Shaheen told us she’ll oppose the ICC sanctions bill when it hits the Senate floor.

But under a Risch-Shaheen partnership, there appears to be a path to improving the committee’s track record.

— Andrew Desiderio

PUNCHBOWL NEWS EVENTS

Cocktails & Conversation: Inauguration 2025

On Thursday night, we hosted “Cocktails & Conversation: Inauguration 2025,” an event featuring networking, light bites and a fireside chat about trends seen in our insiders’ tracking poll, The Canvass, on the new Congress and the Trump administration. During the event, Punchbowl News special projects editor Elvina Nawaguna sat down for a conversation with Phillip Morris, partner at LSG. Thank you to LSG for partnering with us on the event.

Raising a glass: Ben Jenkins and Erin Billings of LSG; Steve Hartell of Amazon; Marissa Mitrovich of the Fiber Broadband Association; Stacey Bernards of Honeywell; Dana Gray of T-Mobile; Matt Lathrop of Yum! Brands; Joe Maloney of the American Gaming Association; Mike Parrish of Bayer; Liz Clark of the Health & Fitness Association; Casey Clark of NAPEO; Michael Bilello of the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America; and Cait DeBaun of the American Beverage Association.

… AND THERE’S MORE

The Campaign. Jimmy Patronis, the CFO of Florida who is running to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), raised $972,363 since getting into the race. He has $710,752 on hand. Patronis, who is in a 10-way primary, has the support of Speaker Mike Johnson, President-elect Donald Trump and much of the GOP establishment.

Downtown Download. Nippon Steel, the Japanese steel conglomerate which was just blocked from buying U.S. Steel, hired former House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-Mo.) to lobby on “[i]ssues specific to the proposed merger of Nippon Steel and U. S. Steel.” The hiring was effective Dec. 2 — well before President Joe Biden blocked the merger.

— Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

Several ads are airing right now in D.C. dealing with reconciliation and taxes.

AARP is running a positive spot about President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to support a “tax credit for family caregivers who take care of a parent or loved one.” Indeed, this is one of many tax breaks that Trump promised during the campaign that Congress will be pressured to make reality.

Americans for Prosperity has a new spot running urging Congress to “renew the TCJA” — as if they needed a reminder for that!

— Jake Sherman

CLIPS