'Extinction-level event'

IN THIS EDITION

Democrats eye the House majority. Will they succeed?

Crenshaw has Texas primary problems

Defense: Lawmakers brace for action against Iran

Senate Dems ramp up pressure for tariff refunds

THE TOP

Democrats eye the House majority. Will they succeed?

Happy Friday morning.

LEESBURG, Va. — At their yearly retreat, House Democrats are telling anyone who’ll listen how confident they are about winning the majority in November.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has even started using the term “extinction-level event” to describe what’s in store for House Republicans this fall.

Democrats need to flip just three seats to take control of the House, and the political environment looks favorable for the minority party.

President Donald Trump has a record-low approval rating, even losing his big advantages on the economy and immigration. The party is overperforming in special elections and recruiting candidates deep into Trump territory. Plus, nothing motivates Democrats like having Trump in office.

But zooming in, there are more than a few roadblocks along Democrats’ path to power.

“We can’t take anything for granted as a Democratic Caucus. It’s still very early in the midterm election cycle,” Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) told us. “We have to demonstrate that we have a plan on how to govern.”

Let’s dive into potential obstacles to a Democratic victory:

The money game. The specter of MAGA Inc. — Trump’s massively funded super PAC — wreaking havoc on House Democratic candidates looms large.

MAGA Inc. ended January with $310 million on hand, though even high-ranking Republican officials have no idea how much of that will be deployed toward the midterms.

The NRCC outraised the DCCC in 2025. And while the two national committees have similar cash-on-hand totals, Democrats acknowledge they may be outspent overall.

“We know that they’re going to have a ton of outside money, special interest money,” DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash) said. “We’ll have the resources to communicate in these districts across the country. And we don’t always need more. We need enough.”

Also on the horizon: A Supreme Court ruling that’s expected to allow party committees to coordinate freely with candidates and buy ads at the cheaper candidate rate. Because Republican candidates typically raise less than Democrats, they benefit more from being able to rely on the NRCC.

That’s not to mention the unknown quantity of flashy new super PACs from the AI and crypto industries. Democrats are increasingly embracing oppositional stances on data centers that could spark the ire of the deep-pocketed AI brigade.

“Yes, I am concerned,” Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) said about the prospect of AI spending in the midterms.

Liccardo, who’s seeking to improve his party’s Silicon Valley relationships, is calling on Democrats to address data center worries without calling for a moratorium.

VRA in jeopardy. The biggest question mark of the cycle is whether the Supreme Court will strike down Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.

Democrats are bracing for the conservative majority on the high court to gut the VRA. But the decision on Louisiana v. Callais could come next week, or it could drag on for months, even until June. The longer it drags on, the less impactful this ruling will be for the 2026 cycle.

“If they come out with a decision in June, a ton of states have already had primaries by then,” Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.) said. “That’s a really tough thing to go back and undo.”

The best-case scenario for Democrats is a SCOTUS ruling in June, when many filing deadlines have passed. Louisiana, the state at the center of the case, will still be able to redistrict if SCOTUS declares its existing congressional map unconstitutional. That could yield one or two seats for Republicans.

Florida doesn’t need a weakened VRA to redraw its congressional map, but Republicans would like to wait for a ruling there. The Sunshine State could add anywhere from two to five seats for the GOP, although some of these seats will be purple.

The worst case scenario for Democrats: SCOTUS rules next week or even later in March. Louisiana, Alabama and Florida could be joined by red states like South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia and more in a redistricting blitz. That helps Republicans keep their House majority.

Messy primaries. In scores of competitive House seats, Democrats are battling each other in complicated intraparty races that could deplete their resources before toss-up general elections. These primaries are all over the map, and they’re getting increasingly snippy. Just look at some recent headlines from Colorado, New York and California.

We’ll note that not all of these primaries feature ideological disputes that are the most damaging for Democrats.

“Often a contested primary will make a candidate stronger going into a general election, because they’re battle tested,” said Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), who leads the campaign arm of the New Democrat Coalition.

Other seats with competitive Democratic primaries are playing out in districts held by Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) and open seats in Nebraska, Michigan, and Arizona.

How Dems are responding. Democrats told us that many of the factors listed above are outside their purview.

Democrats are also raising alarms that Trump’s election rhetoric could portend interference this November. But above all, Democrats still say they’re in the driver’s seat.

House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (Calif.) summed it up this way: “We’re going to control what we can control.”

Fly Out Day is live! Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) on 2026, the DHS shutdown and California’s competitive gubernatorial primary. Watch here!

— Max Cohen and Ally Mutnick

NEW EVENT! Join us on Wednesday, March 18, at 8:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.). Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Houchin to discuss the news of the day and digital wellbeing for kids and teenagers. Afterward, Garth Graham, MD, head of YouTube Health at YouTube, will join Anna for a fireside chat. RSVP now!

PRIMARY SEASON

Crenshaw has Texas primary problems

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) is at serious risk of losing his primary.

House GOP leaders are growing increasingly concerned about Crenshaw’s fate next Tuesday as he faces a strong challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth.

A pro-Crenshaw super PAC has spent more than $1 million bashing Toth on TV. That’s a clear sign that the incumbent’s allies see the challenger as a serious threat, even though Toth has spent very little money himself.

The race extends to a May runoff if no candidate clears 50% next week.

“I’ve heard [Crenshaw has] got a tough race,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us this week. “I mean, I supported him, hopefully he pulls it out on Tuesday.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) upended the contest by endorsing Toth this week, and Cruz immediately cut an ad for a pro-Toth super PAC. The House Freedom Caucus’ political arm got behind Toth as well.

“He was completely underwater before the race even started,” Toth told us of Crenshaw’s favorability rating. “There’s no way Ted Cruz would jump in. There’s no way the Freedom Caucus would jump in. There’s no way that these different players would get involved in this thing, if the numbers weren’t incredibly good.”

We’re not sure about that. The Freedom Caucus has endorsed failed candidates in the past. But Cruz’s nod is significant.

“Steve Toth is the best candidate for that seat,” Cruz told us on Thursday. “He’s a strong conservative, and I think his principles and values reflect the values of the voters of the district.”

Cruz had already been planning to endorse against Crenshaw. But the divide between the Texas Republicans grew worse recently when Crenshaw voted against the ROTOR Act, Cruz’s aviation safety bill. Cruz announced his support for Toth just hours after the failed ROTOR vote in the House.

Redistricting put Crenshaw in some unfamiliar territory and drew Toth’s home into the district. But the fact that Toth poses a serious threat is remarkable.

Consider this disparity: Toth spent $175,000 from Jan. 1 through mid-February. Crenshaw spent $616,000 in the same period. Toth’s super PAC has spent $362,000 on ads. While the pro-Crenshaw group dropped $2 million.

The very competitive Lone Star State. There are a bunch of intense primary races in Texas on Tuesday.

There are two marquee Senate contests: the three-way GOP race between Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. On the Democratic side, it’s Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico.

All three GOP candidates are scheduled to join President Donald Trump at an event today in Corpus Christi, but the president has stayed out of the race. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been pushing Trump for several months to get behind Cornyn, but the president has resisted.

“Almost every time we talk, we talk Texas,” Thune said of Trump.

For his part, Cornyn said he spoke with Trump on Tuesday and that he doesn’t expect any news from the president before Tuesday’s primary.

Meanwhile, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), a 21-year incumbent, faces a tough challenge from newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Texas). Brandon Herrera is primarying scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas).

And Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) is facing a challenge from the man she replaced in Congress: former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

— Ally Mutnick, Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

EYES ON TEHRAN

Defense: Lawmakers brace for action against Iran

Anxiety is growing on Capitol Hill over the unclear scope and objective of President Donald Trump’s seemingly imminent military campaign against Iran.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said again Thursday he didn’t think Trump “has made any decisions,” yet lawmakers are increasingly concerned about the lack of insight they’ve received into a possible operation, as well as the risks such a move could pose for the tens of thousands of U.S. troops in the region.

Republicans have increasingly voiced support for regime change in Iran. But as Trump casts greater attention on Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, questions remain over what the administration’s ultimate goal is.

“It’s in our national security interest to achieve regime change, but I haven’t given a lot of thought in particular as to what that looks like,” Thune said.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said of the situation in Iran: “It’s serious, and we need the administration to lay out its goals to the American people.”

Talks continued Thursday between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi — a mediator of the discussions — cited “significant progress in the negotiation” in a post on X. MS NOW reported that Albusaidi will meet with Vice President JD Vance and other U.S. officials in Washington on Friday.

Not like Caracas. Lawmakers made clear they see the situation in Iran as fundamentally different from other recent U.S. military actions, such as the January raid in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro.

“This is not the same situation as Venezuela,” said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee. “This is a country [Iran] with advanced weapons, the willingness to use them, and there’s no guarantee if we support regime change that what succeeds the ayatollah is going to be any better.”

Earlier this week, Shaheen noted that Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently told the committee that there are around 40,000 Americans within firing range of Iran. “All of the experts that I’ve heard suggest that Iran is going to be much more robust in its response should America strike it again,” Shaheen added.

Democrats are perplexed at Trump’s mixed signals on Iran. Trump and other senior administration officials claimed last year that Iran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” following U.S. air strikes. Yet these same officials are now saying Tehran is rapidly developing missiles capable of hitting the United States.

Many Democrats think Trump has failed to make any sort of credible case for military action.

“I don’t think the president has done a good job of making a case for using the military at the scale that you would need to not only get rid of their enrichment capability, but to replace the government,” Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) said.

— Anthony Adragna and Briana Reilly

TRADE WARS

Senate Dems ramp up pressure for tariff refunds

Top Senate Democrats are bringing their fight against President Donald Trump’s tariffs directly to the administration.

Two dozen Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), are sending a letter today to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent demanding that tariff refunds begin immediately.

The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a bombshell ruling last week. Trump quickly pivoted, using other authorities to continue his trade wars. But it’s still unclear whether the Trump administration will return the tens of billions of dollars collected under the previous tariff regime to businesses.

Democrats are focusing heavily on the issue, calling for the money to be paid back.

The message to Treasury. Senate Democrats say in their letter that Bessent’s public comments and the administration’s delay on refunds have been “unacceptable.” Bessent has said that lower courts will decide whether the tariff revenue must be returned.

Democrats have seized on the SCOTUS ruling to make their political case against Trump’s tariffs; they’ve been arguing for months that the trade wars are directly tied to rising costs.

But Democrats have limited options in the minority to push legislation against the tariffs. Democrats were challenging the IEEPA levies using privileged resolutions, but those are now moot. However, the new statute Trump invoked after the Supreme Court ruling to continue his across-the-board tariffs requires congressional approval to extend them beyond 150 days. Senate Democrats have already said they won’t vote to allow them to continue.

House Democrats have the option of using discharge petitions to try to force votes, and they’ve introduced bills to mandate refunds and end Trump’s new global tariffs. There are a handful of Republicans in both chambers who’ve been willing to break with Trump publicly and vote against the tariffs so far.

— Laura Weiss

… AND THERE’S MORE

Ad buy. Unrig Our Economy is spending $280,000 on an ad buy slamming Rep. Tom Kean (R-N.J.) on tariffs.

The Money Game. At the House Democratic retreat, DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene (Wash.) ended her midterms presentation to the caucus with an auction that raised $1.75 million for the DCCC. Among the prizes: bourbon and a chance to shove pie in Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar’s (Calif.) face.

Manny Rutinel, a Democrat running in Colorado’s 8th District, raised $500,000 so far in Q1 of 2026 and $3 million to date in his campaign.

The Democratic Governors Association raised $315,000 online in the 24 hours surrounding Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s State of the Union response. Per the DGA, this was the group’s best online fundraising day of the year.

Endorsement news. New Politics is endorsing Democratic state Del. Dan Helmer in Virginia’s 7th District.

Big bucks. Four major data breaches in recent years cost Americans nearly $21 billion, according to a new analysis from the Democrats on the Joint Economic Committee.

Ranking member Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) issued that calculation in a new report that also delves into whether data brokers make it easy for consumers to opt out of the firms’ buying and selling of data. (Spoiler alert: not without a nudge.)

— Ben Brody and Max Cohen

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