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May 31, 2024
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What the Trump conviction means for Hill Republicans
Happy Friday morning.
News: To give you a sense of what Hill Republicans are focused on this morning — The NRCC had its best online fundraising day of the cycle Thursday in the wake of former President Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts in the New York City hush-money case.
By late Thursday night, the NRCC had raised $300,000, surpassing the $175,000 it raised on the day Mike Johnson was elected speaker of the House.
This is the kind of argument you’ll hear from Republicans over the next few weeks and months. That Trump’s legal problems — which now include this stunning conviction in New York City — will actually boost Republican support and solidify the base around not only the former president but GOP candidates and incumbents up and down the ticket.
An angry voter is a motivated voter. That’s the GOP’s argument. And Trump and his supporters are very angry following the blockbuster verdict.
Yet consider this:
| → | Hundreds of House and Senate candidates are running for reelection with a convicted felon at the top of the ticket. The Biden-Harris campaign and every pro-Democratic group in the country are going to remind voters of this each day between now and Nov. 5. |
| → | Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, only 41 days away. |
| → | The Republican convention kicks off in Milwaukee on July 15. |
Trump will speak today at 11 a.m. at Trump Tower in New York.
In the Capitol: There will be a huge impact on Capitol Hill. We’re beginning to see signals that Republican lawmakers will be out for revenge when they return to town next week.
House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a die-hard Trump backer, called the verdict a “travesty of justice.” Jordan has already opened a probe into Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg. There will be more action from the panel on this front.
We’d also expect to see a reaction out of the House Oversight Committee, which is in charge of the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden. This doesn’t necessarily change the dynamics of impeachment, but it makes a criminal referral against Biden more likely
One other note — Hunter Biden’s trial on federal gun charges is scheduled to begin Monday.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has demanded Johnson use the House Republicans’ power over federal spending to try to limit or defund Special Counsel Jack Smith’s investigations into the former president. That’s certain to ramp up. “Republican leaders – if ever a time to step up, it’s now,” tweeted Rep. Michael Cloud (R-Texas), a House Freedom Caucus member who also serves on the Appropriations and Oversight panels.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) said on X that “Red State AGs and DAs” should “get busy” after the verdict.
The reaction from Senate Republicans was slightly more muted, although those Republicans hoping to be Trump’s VP went full bore. Senate Minority Whip John Thune said the case “was politically motivated from the beginning,” while Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) called on Republicans to rally around Trump: “The real verdict will be on Election Day.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, no Trump fan, simply said this: “These charges never should have been brought in the first place. I expect the conviction to be overturned on appeal.”
But Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who wants to be Trump’s VP, released an angry video declaring the decision “erodes the confidence that Americans have in the justice system.” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) — echoing a line from many on the right — claimed the verdict “isn’t justice, it’s election interference.” Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) has filed multiple misconduct complaints against Judge Juan Merchan, who oversaw the case.
A final point worth paying attention to: You’re either all in for Trump or you’re against him. His camp is watching everything every Republican says very closely and is ready to pounce on any sign of perceived weakness or disloyalty.
For example, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, the GOP’s Senate nominee in the Free State, put out a statement calling on “All Americans to respect the verdict and the legal process.”
That wasn’t good enough for Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita: “You just ended your campaign.”
There’s no middle ground for Republicans on Trump. There never has been and there never will be. This is the “Ride or Die” campaign for president.
The Coverage:
NYT: Political Memo: “Trump Had Good Fortune So Far With His Four Cases. Then Came a Verdict,” by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan
WaPo: “A ‘very innocent man’ stares down being convicted and becoming a felon,” Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Marianne LeVine in New York
Bloomberg: “Wall Street Scans for Potential Volatility After Trump Verdict,” by Sydney Maki, Carter Johnson and Denitsa Tsekova
AP: “Shares in Trump Media slump after former president convicted in hush money trial,” by Michelle Chapman
Politico: “Trump campaign warns GOP candidates not to fundraise off Trump’s conviction,” by Alex Isenstadt
— Jake Sherman and John Bresnahan
ICYMI: Our new, weekly digest, The Readback, launches tomorrow. Keep an eye on your inbox for the first edition, featuring a dispatch from Max Cohen’s SoCal campaign trip, behind the scenes of a week overseas with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and much more!
If you have any questions, please reach out to readback@punchbowl.news and we hope you enjoy!
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DEPT. OF UP OR DOWN
Punch Power Matrix
— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio, Brendan Pedersen and John Bresnahan
How Democrats are running on abortion in California
IRVINE, Calif. — California Democrats are going all in on abortion in the Golden State, betting that the prospect of national restrictions on reproductive health care will motivate voters in key House races.
California — with its wealth of competitive House races — will be a fascinating testing ground for how the politics of abortion will play out in a deep-blue state two years after the end of Roe v. Wade.
Vulnerable House Republicans, meanwhile, are hoping that California’s strong statewide abortion protections will render the issue moot in 2024.
Last cycle, the abortion rights playbook didn’t work as well for Democrats in liberal states. But on the trail in southern California, Democrats told us that voters are worried a Republican-controlled federal government would enact severe anti-abortion policies.
“Unlike the midterms, when people felt they were safe in California and New York, in 2024, there is no safe place in the United States if Calvert and his allies take control of the federal government,” said Will Rollins, who’s running against Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.).
In 2022, California overwhelmingly passed Proposition 1, which enshrined reproductive freedom protections in the state constitution. Some candidates told us they still have to work hard to tell everyday voters that this won’t save the state from a national ban.
“There’s a misunderstanding that the general public thinks and believes that because we live in California, we’re protected,” Derek Tran, who’s running against Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) told us. “But a national ban is a national ban, and it’s all about educating the voters out there that this could possibly come true.”
Given there aren’t 60 votes for a national ban in the Senate, this means getting into the filibuster and whether Senate Republicans may do away with it if they’re elected.
“If they get control of Congress, if they get control of the presidency, who’s to say how far Republicans will go?” Democrat Dave Min told us. “The filibuster is a norm that is a reversible rule. Have we ever seen Republicans abide by long-standing rules?”
Republicans maintain that the Democratic argument on abortion rights won’t hit home with voters in California.
Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) typified the GOP position when he told us “the abortion issue is not the front burner issue” in his race.
“The reality is that if you want an abortion in California, it’s full-term rights all the way through,” Garcia said. “That’s the law of the land, whether we agree with it or not.”
“I don’t think abortion in California is going to be that big of an issue as some Democrats think,” Calvert added.
But it’s increasingly clear Republicans are seeing their party’s reproductive rights positions as untenable. Steel, for instance, removed herself as a cosponsor from the Life at Conception Act after criticism that the bill threatened access to IVF.
“I’m pro-life with three exceptions,” Steel, who used IVF to conceive, told us. “And then I took my name off from that bill because there was confusion after the Alabama court decision.”
Taking a step back, the divergence here between the Democratic and Republican strategies is staggering.
Garcia’s challenger, former NASA aide and Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides, said voters in the district “are just scared of a ban.” The fear runs so deep, Whitesides said, that “it’s not an issue that our side needs to explain.”
Garcia has the complete opposite view.
“The abortion thing is what the DCCC is gonna try to run against me. They’re ineffective, so that’s fantastic. They should keep doing the same things that have lost every time,” Garcia said. “I’ve been very clear that I have no intentions of supporting a national ban. So it’s a phantom ghost that they’re trying to create to compel people to go vote.”
— Max Cohen
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The Vault: Direct File is here to stay
The Biden administration is expanding the Direct File program as it attempts to make it easier and cheaper for individuals to file their annual returns.
“Direct File is an important component of a strong comprehensive tax system that gives taxpayers electronic filing options that best suit their needs,” IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel said on a call with reporters Thursday.
The IRS ran a pilot version this year of the program allowing people to file their taxes online for free directly with the IRS. It ran in 12 states for taxpayers with simpler returns, and about 140,000 people took part. Next year, the IRS plans to allow all 50 states and Washington, D.C., to decide whether to opt into the program.
The agency also plans to expand the program to more tax situations in the coming years so more taxpayers can take advantage of the program. Werfel said a focus of that build-out will be tax situations that impact working families.
Still, this won’t necessarily be easy. Tax preparation software companies like TurboTax owner Intuit and H&R Block have fought against Direct File.
But Werfel sought to combat the idea that the government-run platform would become the only option or squeeze out other choices. Werfel said the agency “will continue to support all filing options.”
Some Democrats, though, directly frame the Direct File option as a challenge to services like TurboTax. Here’s what Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said:
The announcement is a win for Democrats and progressive groups who’ve clamored for a government-run filing option. Republicans meanwhile have railed against Direct File. Still, Werfel said he’s not concerned about possible GOP wins in November curtailing the program’s future.
“We also think it is nonpartisan that taxpayers should have options for how they file and that the broader the menu of options, the better for all Americans regardless of political stripe,” Werfel said.
But that’s not a universal view, and some Democrats are ready to get political on the issue. Wyden said he’s “convinced that Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress will shut it down if they have the opportunity. Taxpayers must remember that Direct File is on the ballot in November.”
— Laura Weiss
…. AND THERE’S MORE
News: Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) communications director Tony Wen resigned on Thursday, according to two sources familiar with the situation.
Wen’s resignation comes days after the House Ethics Committee announced it was investigating Cuellar. Earlier this month, the Justice Department unsealed a 14-count indictment charging Cuellar and his wife Imelda with bribery, money laundering, wire fraud and failing to register as a foreign agent.
Cuellar’s chief of staff resigned shortly after the indictment. Cuellar has said he plans to seek reelection and maintains his innocence.
More news: The National Education Association and the Delaware State Education Association are endorsing Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester’s (D-Del.) Senate run. LBR is the massive favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.).
Primary alert: American Patriots PAC, the Ken Griffin and Paul Singer funded super PAC going after Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), has a new ad up touting President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Virginia state Sen. John McGuire, who is running to topple the House Freedom Caucus chair.
This ad is up from May 28 to June 18, and the price tag is $1.8 million. That’s a big buy — especially on top of the millions of dollars this PAC has already spent.
— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman
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