The Three Amigos vote no -- again

IN THIS EDITION

Trump’s troublesome GOP trio votes against rescissions

GOP eyes coming Obamacare cliff

Back to your regularly scheduled crypto agenda

Takeaways from FEC filing day

THE TOP

Trump’s troublesome GOP trio votes against rescissions

Happy Wednesday morning.

The Senate narrowly advanced the White House’s $9 billion rescissions package late Tuesday night, with Vice President JD Vance forced to break a 50-50 tie on the first two procedural votes.

Senate Republican leaders expect to pass the measure by Thursday, with a vote-a-rama set to begin this afternoon. Then the legislation will be sent to the House for final approval. Congress has to approve the rescissions package by Friday or the White House must spend the funds as they were originally appropriated.

Yet the bigger story inside the Senate may be who opposed last night’s procedural votes and why. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine), along with Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) — also senior appropriators — voted against moving forward with the GOP-only effort.

For Collins, it’s the second time in recent weeks that the Appropriations Committee chair went against her friend and ally Senate Majority Leader John Thune on a major issue.

More importantly, Collins has found herself opposing President Donald Trump’s top legislative priorities. This comes after voting no on some high-profile Trump nominees, including Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary and Kash Patel for FBI director. Collins — like Murkowski — voted to convict Trump in 2021 following the Senate trial over his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

Things will only get tougher for the veteran Maine Republican. Collins will be at the center of the government-funding fight in September and what could be a bruising reelection campaign in next year’s midterm elections. Yet it would be a major blow to Thune and Senate Republicans if the 72-year-old Collins decides not to run again.

Opposing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and the proposed rescissions package, in fact, may help Collins back home. Thune knows that Collins — the lone New England Republican in the Senate — is the only GOP candidate who can win statewide in Maine. Former VP Kamala Harris carried the Pine Tree State by a solid margin back in November.

“Everybody cuts her a lot of slack. She represents a very blue state,” Thune told us. “She sees the world through a different lens. She’s always very up-front about what she’s going to do.”

Thune acknowledged that supporting the rescissions package — which includes cuts to foreign aid while also slashing $1 billion-plus of funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which supports NPR and PBS — is “a tough issue if you’re an appropriator.” Thune added, however, “We got the result we needed.”

“Susan Collins is one of the most respected senators. Susan is one who votes on principle and she also understands she represents Maine,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), a close Thune ally who chaired the NRSC last cycle.

Thune has to be careful that Collins isn’t being discouraged from running in 2026 as he continues to push Trump’s agenda. Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills has been floated as a potential challenger, although at age 77, this may be a stretch. Democratic Rep. Jared Golden has already said he won’t run for Senate.

In the coming months, Collins will have to manage an appropriations process that’s hanging by a thread as Republicans push this party-line rescissions package. Democrats have warned that a successful rescissions effort may doom a bipartisan funding deal.

“It makes it really challenging for us to have any kind of trust, to have any kind of compromise going forward,” Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the Appropriations Committee’s top Democrat, said before the Tuesday votes.

Collins issued a lengthy statement on her no votes, complaining that the Trump administration officials haven’t been specific about what they’re trying to cut using the rescissions process, which avoids any Senate Democratic filibuster.

“The rescissions package has a big problem — nobody really knows what program reductions are in it,” Collins said.

Earlier in the day, we asked Collins whether she was worried about any fallout from Trump or Senate Republicans for voting against OBBB and the rescissions measure.

“I’m not gonna discuss the factors that are going into my decision-making,” Collins said. “I am pleased that PEPFAR funding — which has been restored — is in the bill.” Senate GOP leaders restored $400 million in funding for the global HIV/AIDS prevention program following complaints from Collins and other Republicans.

The new ‘three amigos’? Collins has been on an island lately, something that’s become especially evident during closed-door Senate GOP Conference meetings, according to GOP senators. Collins has been speaking out against the rescissions effort for weeks now, particularly the PEPFAR cuts.

Yet Collins’ other warnings — chiefly that OMB refused to provide a detailed breakdown of how the proposed cuts will be implemented — fell on mostly deaf ears in the Senate Republican Conference.

“OMB is the problem,” McConnell told reporters on his no vote. “They won’t tell us how they’re going to apply the cuts.”

McConnell, the longtime Senate GOP leader who is retiring after this Congress, disputed the notion that it’s problematic that Collins, as the Appropriations Committee chair, so prominently voted against her leadership on two major bills.

And Murkowski told us she’s not worried about any blowback from fellow GOP senators over her own “no“ votes:

— Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan and Samantha Handler

July Events: Join us on Tuesday, July 22 at 9:30 a.m. ET for a conversation with Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.). Punchbowl News Technology Reporter Ben Brody will chat with Markey about the news of the day and online safety for kids. RSVP here!

YEAR-END TALKS

GOP eyes coming Obamacare cliff

Lawmakers have another huge, politically charged deadline looming at the end of the year. That’s when the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire.

If Congress doesn’t renew the credits, 4.2 million Americans could lose health insurance coverage, per CBO.

The politics are incredibly complex here for the GOP.

Republicans just slashed hundreds of billions of dollars in Medicaid funding, which is already a focus of Democrats’ midterm messaging. The Obamacare subsidies are mainly a priority for Democrats. But some Republicans are now starting to back an extension, wary of allowing more Americans to wind up uninsured in what may be a tough election landscape for the party.

“This is a perfect opportunity for us to move past the reconciliation process, which is clearly a partisan exercise,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “It may even be an opportunity for us to address some of the defects, as I see them, in the reconciliation bill.”

Tillis voted against the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” after railing against Medicaid cuts.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said the GOP has to act, whether that’s extending the ACA credits or something similar.

“We have to do something to allow people to afford health care,” Hawley said. “The cost of insurance on the exchanges is just astronomical. That’s why so many people are on Medicaid.”

Both of Alaska’s Republican senators want to see congressional action too.

“There’s a lot of interest in this, and I’m certainly part of that interest,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she’s planning to start bipartisan talks for an extension of the credits soon.

The outlook. Republicans who want to extend the credits face significant headwinds.

Plenty of GOP lawmakers aren’t interested in extending the subsidies. Democrats would likely have to make a big push in any year-end negotiations to get something done.

Those talks will be complicated by the messy efforts to address government funding over the next few months, which is especially charged for Democrats.

Sen. Ron Wyden (Ore.), the Finance Committee’s top Democrat, is already blaming the GOP for the subsidies expiring. When asked about bipartisan talks, Wyden insisted Republicans are choosing partisanship.

“I’ll work with anybody, but I don’t see anything resembling that, and what I do see is all over the political rags is they’re already planning the second reconciliation partisan bill,” Wyden said.

GOP leader view. Top tax writers are pushing for other priorities in a potential year-end health deal. Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) floated pharmacy benefit manager reforms and other health extenders as possibilities, but told us he isn’t focused on the Obamacare credits yet.

When we asked House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) about the ACA credits, Smith said his focus is on access to rural health care.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the ACA expiration is under discussion now.

“We’re having conversations about how we might deal with that issue,” Thune said.

Both Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said they haven’t yet thought about the issue.

“We haven’t really gotten into that,” Scalise said Tuesday. “Obviously, One Big Beautiful Bill was all the focus. Now we’re looking at some of these other items.”

— Laura Weiss, Samantha Handler and Jake Sherman

CRYPTO COUNTDOWN

Back to your regularly scheduled crypto agenda

Here’s a story the crypto industry can relate to: Speaker Mike Johnson’s House collapsed on itself Tuesday afternoon. Then, without much of a reason, it bounced right back.

Conservative hardliners killed a rule that contained much of the crypto sector’s legislative agenda for this Congress on Tuesday. But before 9 p.m., President Donald Trump announced that those same conservatives had decided to play ball. Cool!

Trump hosted most of the holdouts — some from the “Known to Fold” House Freedom Caucus — in the Oval Office on Tuesday night. Following a “short discussion,” Trump announced that “they have all agreed to vote tomorrow in favor of the Rule.”

What have we learned? Nothing! Capitol Hill is irritated and unsurprised by the “Vote no, then fold” exercise. We hope the Oval Office couches were comfortable.

Dig a bit deeper, and there are interesting undercurrents to unpack in crypto politics — among Democrats. Let’s talk about those.

Divisive download. The mood among Democrats on crypto legislation ranges from bitter to teeth-grinding to excited. House Democratic leadership isn’t whipping for or against the bills, a tacit acknowledgement of the diversity of views inside their caucus.

House Democrats discussed the upcoming votes Tuesday morning in a caucus meeting. Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), the ranking member of the House Financial Services committee, spoke against the legislation, arguing that Democrats needed to stand firm against Trump and his family.

“I’m warning them to be careful,” Waters said in an interview.

But Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.), who is running for Senate, spoke in favor of the legislation, arguing the bill wasn’t perfect but that some regulation reining in Trump was better than nothing, according to sources in the room. Craig led a big bipartisan markup of the CLARITY Act last month from her perch on the House Agriculture Committee.

Coinbase has been active here. They sent this letter to House leadership last night, urging passage of the CLARITY Act as a “practical, bipartisan step to modernize digital assets treatment.”

But we expect several Democrats to back the GENIUS Act — which would introduce regulations to stablecoins — but oppose the CLARITY Act. That bill would reorganize the responsibilities of federal financial regulators for crypto.

Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.) is one such Democrat after negotiating with Republicans on market structure reforms for years. The Goldman Sachs alum won’t support CLARITY this week, in part because the legislation fails to stop Trump from enriching himself with crypto.

“I’ve been begging for six weeks for strong conflicts language,” Himes said. “The answer has been no, no, no and no.”

This vote has wide-ranging implications for vulnerable members. Crypto super PACs are a major spending force in elections and have helped elect members of the caucus. The Fairshake super PAC network decided to announce it had $140 million on hand on Tuesday.

But Frontliners also have to watch their left flank. There’s a risk that comes with taking a vote that the base may view as enriching Trump.

“My argument has been, if the barn door is cracked open, you can either close it or swing it wide,” Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) said. “What this is doing is swinging the door wide open.”

– Brendan Pedersen, Jake Sherman and Ally Mutnick

CASH DASH

Takeaways from FEC filing day

A trove of campaign-finance data due Tuesday night brought the clearest look yet at the 2026 landscape. We sorted through hundreds of filings from House and Senate candidates covering the second quarter of 2025, which runs from April 1 to June 30.

Here are our biggest takeaways and what they tell us about the midterms:

The House. Endangered incumbents from both parties posted impressive Q2 numbers, but Republicans were a bit stronger.

By our count, 25 of the 32 GOP incumbents on Democrats’ 2026 target list raised more than $700,000. And 10 of them raised more than $1 million, including Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.).

Of the 25 Democrats on the NRCC’s target list, 11 raised more than $700,000 and only one raised more than $1 million: Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.).

This doesn’t mean that Republicans will keep their majority. But it does mean they’re putting themselves in a good financial position ahead of what could be a tough election.

The weakest fundraisers on both parties’ target lists were those who haven’t had to consistently run tough races, such as Reps. Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.). Members like these are most likely to be the ones caught off guard in a tough cycle.

Mills was slightly outraised by a challenger, as was Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.). In Davis’ case, his GOP opponent self-funded.

Texas. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised just $804,000 in Q2. Before the deadline Cornyn said he raised $3.9 million between his campaign account and his joint fundraising committee — which has different donation limits — but he wouldn’t give the breakdown behind that total. Now we know.

Cornyn does have a respectable $5.9 million in the bank but raising less than one million dollars for his campaign account during the quarter isn’t a good sign. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $2.9 million in Q2.

Retirement tea leaves. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) raised $723,000 in Q2, also a low number for an in-cycle incumbent in a potentially competitive race. Ernst tops Senate retirement watch lists.

— Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) raised $2.4 million and has $5.3 million banked. That’s not a huge number but it’s actually more than she raised during the second quarter of 2019. If Collins runs, she’ll have plenty of money being spent on her behalf in a must-have Senate seat for Republicans.

— On the House side, a few swing-seat Democratic incumbents also posted some low numbers.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) raised just $220,000; Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) raised $412,000 and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) raised $256,000. Everyone is running until they’re not, but these numbers could portend retirement.

Other fundraising news: The NRCC raised $18.1 million in June, for a Q2 total of $32.2 million. Their June total is a 46% increase from June 2023, per the committee.

– Ally Mutnick and Anthony Cruz

AND THERE’S MORE…

The Grand Canyon State. Adelita Grijalva crushed her competition in a special Democratic primary to fill the seat of her late father, Democratic Rep. Raúl Grijalva in Arizona’s 7th District.

Grijalva defeated Deja Foxx, a Gen Z influencer backed by David Hogg’s political group, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. The Tucson-based district is safely Democratic.

The left. The Congressional Progressive Caucus is launching five task forces to help House Democrats craft a winning message in 2026.

The CPC will focus its new task forces on lowering costs, ending corporate greed, fighting corruption, better pay and benefits and promoting peace and security.

Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.) will lead the “lowering costs” task force, which will focus on health care, housing and education.

Rep. Dave Min (D-Calif.) will spearhead “fighting corruption,” which will look at stock trading, Supreme Court reform and money in politics.

Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) will lead “ending corporate greed,” which will focus on AI, crypto, financial services and more.

Rep. Emily Randall (D-Wash.) will lead “better pay and benefits,” which will center around labor and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) will head “promoting peace and security,” which will focus on diplomacy and congressional oversight.

– Mica Soellner and Ally Mutnick

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