The Archive

IN THIS EDITION

Election Day is here. Where are your leaders?

How the Senate might look next year and what that means for power

The House races that could send early signals about the majority

The Vault: After today, committee contenders start their engines

THE TOP

Election Day is here. Where are your leaders?

Happy Tuesday morning.

It’s Election Day. This is the second Election Day since we started Punchbowl News. Thank you for all your support.

We’re going to start right in our wheelhouse — what the most powerful House and Senate leaders, as well as leadership aspirants, are up to on Election Day.

Speaker Mike Johnson will be spending election night in Shreveport, La., the heart of his district. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise will be in Metairie, La., where he is every election night. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer will be at former President Donald Trump’s watch party in Palm Beach, Fla. House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik will join Johnson in Louisiana to track election results from there.

We hear that several of these House Republican leaders have made tentative plans to fly to Palm Beach tonight if it seems like Trump will win or declare victory.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will be in New York and House Minority Whip Katherine Clark will be in D.C. House Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar will be in California, which has a whole bunch of competitive House races coming down to the wire. DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene will be in D.C., as well.

Senate Minority Whip John Thune, who is vying to be the next Republican leader, will be in South Dakota. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will be in D.C.

You’ll notice that neither Democratic nor Republican leaders have any big election night parties scheduled. House Republicans had a huge event in D.C. in 2022 to celebrate their red wave that never arrived.

Vice President Kamala Harris will be at Howard University. Harris’ big donors have an event at the Conrad Hotel near City Center. Trump will be at Mar-a-Lago with some of his close advisers and big donors. Trump’s big event will be at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.

How they closed. After multiple stops in Pennsylvania, Harris held a big concert and rally in Pittsburgh that included appearances by Katy Perry and other celebrities. More than 15,000 people attended the event. Harris ended the night in Philadelphia, where Lady Gaga sang “God Bless America.” Oprah Winfrey introduced Harris to the crowd.

“You will decide the outcome of this election, Pennsylvania,” Harris said. And she’s very likely right.

Trump spent his rally in Pittsburgh talking about his previous term. But Trump then veered into a rant filled with grievances about the 2020 election and his misgivings about Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) becoming a senator.

What’s next? By the end of this evening, leadership aspirants will begin to make their plays in earnest. They can no longer hide behind the “We-are-focused-on-the-election” excuse. It’s leadership election time.

House Democrats: Barring some unforeseen setback, Jeffries, Clark and Aguilar are safe. The marquee contest will be for the caucus vice chair. This faceoff features Reps. Sara Jacobs (Calif.) and Robin Kelly (Ill.). There could be additional candidates. Jeffries will also appoint a new chair of the DCCC.

Jeffries hasn’t yet scheduled leadership elections. Top Democrats are concerned that Republicans will falsely challenge or attempt to drag out the results from House races.

House Republicans: If Republicans keep the majority, expect Johnson, Scalise and Emmer to stay in their slots without a problem. If House Republicans have a really big night, expect NRCC Chair Richard Hudson to make a play for the Energy and Commerce Committee chairmanship. He’d need a really big night.

If Republicans lose, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) is poised to run for minority leader. The question to focus on is whether Johnson will try to remain in the slot. And Scalise would likely run if Johnson doesn’t.

And of course, the race for the next Senate Republican leader will be in full swing immediately, with Thune squaring off against Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and longshot candidate Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.). That’s a secret ballot contest that’s been marinating for months.

All around the country! This was Punchbowl News’ first presidential election cycle. Early on, we decided to focus intensely on the leadership’s machinations on the trail and big states. There were also several races where our reporting could provide real insight into the balance of power in Washington.

We traveled with Johnson, Scalise, Emmer, Jeffries, Thune, Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso and Jordan.

An ode to Johnny Cash. Our reporters spent time in a dozen states this cycle. Here’s a list of the cities we’ve reported from:

Pennsylvania: Lancaster, Bethlehem, Scranton, Philadelphia, Bucks County, Allentown, Harrisburg, Mechanicsburg, Middletown and Milford. New York: New York City, New Hyde Park, New Rochelle, Bethpage, Freeport, Port Washington, Tarrytown, Haverstraw, New City and Binghamton. Ohio: Canton, Columbus, Steubenville and Warren. Texas: McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr and Mission. Arizona: Phoenix, Scottsdale and Tucson.

California: Westminster, Irvine, Buena Park and Santa Clarita. Michigan: Freeland, Detroit, Lansing, Mt. Morris, St. Clair Shores, Auburn Hills, Sterling Heights and Mt. Pleasant. Nevada: Las Vegas and Henderson. Indiana: Fort Wayne. Minnesota: Minneapolis. Wisconsin: Milwaukee. Virginia: Stafford.

— Jake Sherman, Melanie Zanona, Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

The Daily Punch 🥊 With new episodes every weekday morning, The Daily Punch brings you inside Capitol Hill, the White House and Washington all in less than 15 minutes. Listen to today’s episode now.

THE SENATE

How the Senate might look next year and what that means for power

Senate Republicans are heading into Election Day in a strong position to take the majority. With West Virginia all-but-guaranteed to flip to GOP control following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.), the partisan breakdown in the chamber will start off at 50-50 when the polls close tonight.

That means it only takes one more win for Republicans to secure an outright majority. Their best chances to do that are in Montana and Ohio, followed by the “Blue Wall” presidential battlegrounds and potentially an upset out West.

Let’s run through the various scenarios.

51-49 GOP majority

After West Virginia, the next-best pickup opportunity for Republicans is Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has lagged behind his GOP opponent Tim Sheehy.

A win in Montana would immediately give Republicans an outright majority — assuming they don’t lose a seat elsewhere.

But if it’s a 51-49 Senate, that’s a massive disappointment for Senate Republicans given how favorable the 2024 map was for them heading into the cycle. That would mean Democrats held onto Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. If that’s the case, Democrats should pat themselves on the back.

A 51-49 GOP Senate wouldn’t be the worst result for Democrats. And it would greatly empower moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska).

52-48 GOP majority — and above

If you add Ohio to Republicans’ list of pickups, that gives them a 52-48 majority. Ohio is a red state, though Democrats remain bullish about Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) chances against Republican Bernie Moreno.

This is right around where Republicans believe they should end up. Anything more would just be gravy. Republicans believe the outcomes in the “Blue Wall” Senate races are tied directly to the presidential results in those states.

That’s why the GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — Dave McCormick, Mike Rogers and Eric Hovde, respectively — are hugging former President Donald Trump tightly.

Out west, keep your eyes on the Nevada Senate race. We were in the Silver State last week, as were Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) has been polling consistently ahead of her GOP challenger Sam Brown, but the race is tightening amid strong early-voting numbers for Republicans. Jon Ralston, the Nevada journalist with an encyclopedic knowledge of the state, predicted that Rosen would top Brown by five points.

50-49-1 GOP majority

This is a wonky one but still possible. The Nebraska Senate race is much tighter than it should be. Independent candidate Dan Osborn has tapped into some unique messaging in his race against GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.

If Osborn were to somehow pull off a victory and keep his promise not to caucus with either party, we’d have a rare 50-49-1 GOP majority. (In this scenario, we’re putting Montana and West Virginia in the GOP column.)

But if Osborn could be persuaded to caucus with Democrats, that’d result in a 50-50 split under this scenario, in which case the Senate majority would be determined by the presidential race, since the vice president breaks the tie.

Osborn would join Murkowski and Collins as the most important swing votes in the Senate.

50-50 Democratic majority

It’s unlikely that Democrats will retain their majority. But any hope of doing so would require Harris to win, giving Tim Walz the tiebreaking vote as vice president.

— Andrew Desiderio

ELECTION NIGHT

The House races that could send early signals about the majority

While we won’t know every House race result tonight, there are some key contests that could give early clues about which party will win the majority. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the House.

Here’s what we’re watching:

Virginia — polls close at 7 p.m.: The open 7th District is a close contest between Republican Derrick Anderson and Democrat Eugene Vindman. The winner of this seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), will give an early indication of where things are headed. The district is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans.

In the Virginia Beach-area 2nd District, GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans is facing a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal. Polls show this race in a dead heat, but Kiggans is favored to win. If Democrats can flip the 2nd District, that would bode well for the party’s chances of taking the House.

Speaker Mike Johnson was in both of those districts on Monday.

North Carolina and Ohio — polls close at 7:30 p.m.: Republicans essentially need to flip Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-Ohio) 9th District seat if they want to create a buffer against expected GOP losses elsewhere in the country. Former President Donald Trump won Kaptur’s district in 2020 and her GOP opponent, Derek Merrin, is hoping to ride Trump’s coattails to victory.

In North Carolina’s 1st District, Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) is one of the party’s most vulnerable incumbents. He faces GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout. Johnson and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson both paid Buckhout a visit on Monday. Johnson said the “heart of the U.S. House majority, runs through North Carolina.” If you’re keeping track at home, Johnson has previously asserted that the heart of the majority also runs through New York and Pennsylvania. Reminder: it runs through everywhere.

Maine, Pennsylvania and Michigan — polls close at 8 p.m.: All eyes are on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s race in Maine’s 2nd District against Republican Austin Theriault. Republicans are counting on defeating Golden in a seat Trump won in 2020.

A similar situation is playing out in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, where Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright is trying to win again in a Trump district. He is facing Republican Rob Bresnahan. If both Golden and Cartwright survive, it would be a big blow to the GOP.

Democratic Rep. Susan Wild is facing a competitive challenge from Republican Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th District.

Republican Rep. Scott Perry is in a tough race against TV anchor and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson in the Keystone State’s 10th District.

In Michigan, Republican Tom Barrett is seen as a flip opportunity in the 7th District. Democrats feel more confident about Kristen McDonald Rivet winning in the 8th District and it would be a surprise if Rep. John James (R-Mich.) lost his 10th District race.

New York, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska — polls close at 9 p.m.: There are a number of key races in New York, many of which are expected to be photo finishes.

In two GOP-held seats — Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito in the 4th — Democrats are favored to win. While races may not be called tonight, we’ll have a decent sense of where they stand in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Republicans believe they still have a shot at keeping the House if they lose Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.). But their path becomes significantly harder if Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) also loses.

Keep an eye on vulnerable GOP Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) and Zach Nunn (Iowa). Bacon is the most vulnerable, although polling has shown Miller-Meeks is in trouble, too.

— Mica Soellner, Melanie Zanona and Max Cohen

The Vault: After today, committee contenders start their engines

The 2024 general election begins to come to an end today. But for members itching to lead Capitol Hill’s most powerful banking committees, those contests kick off now.

We’ve spent much of the year talking about the race to be the next top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee. Reps. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and French Hill (R-Ark) are considered the most likely candidates. But Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) are also in the mix.

The reality is that few contenders have been willing to make dramatic moves with the future of GOP leadership so uncertain. That will change after today as who will control the House next year comes into view.

This uncertainty has been hanging over the HFS contest for a while. No one is quite sure what happens to Speaker Mike Johnson and the rest of his leadership team if the House flips to Democrats. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan are lurking in the wings after both men vied for the office last year.

We’ll offer just one data point: some in the House GOP leadership orbit are very bullish about Barr. When we asked the majority leader about outbound investment reform last month, for instance, Scalise talked at some length (and unprompted) about the Kentucky Republican’s leadership in this area.

“I think [Barr] has got some interesting ideas that I think can catch, or hold, right now,” Scalise told us.

On that note, many in the GOP leadership are bearish about Hill’s chances because of his close ties to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Hill voted “present” in the GOP’s internal speaker contest well after it was clear McCarthy was on his way out.

Meanwhile on the left: Republicans may not have a monopoly on committee shakeups.

In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is doing a pretty good job trying to outrun the political gravity in a deep red state. But if Brown loses, it’s not yet clear who might step up as the next top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee.

We walked through some of the options this weekend. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) is the next-most senior and currently chairs the Senate Armed Forces Committee. If Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) pulls off a miracle and wins his reelection, he’s widely expected to go after Brown’s old job. Then there’s Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), currently Senate Intelligence Committee chair but with a well-established interest in banking policy.

If none of those chairs shuffle around, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is next in line.

As for the House, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) has made clear she intends to be the banking panel’s chair next year. If House Democrats fail to flip the chamber, however, plenty of Congress watchers wonder whether the California Democrat will want to grind through two more years as a ranking member. Sources in the Waters orbit say she’ll plan to lead regardless.

— Brendan Pedersen and Jake Sherman

THE CAMPAIGN

The Harris-Walz campaign is running a 15-second ad, reminding voters that former President Donald Trump said on MSNBC that there should be a punishment for women who have abortions.

– Jake Sherman

MOMENTS

CLIPS