Inside the messy Iowa Dem primary

IN THIS EDITION

Iowa’s Senate Democratic primary is getting messy

GOP drops $72B immigration reconciliation bill

Ukraine backers vow tougher approach in aid fight

Scoop: NRCC touts financial edge in midterms

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Iowa’s Senate Democratic primary is getting messy

Happy Tuesday morning.

Democrats are banking on a high-stakes, long-shot win in Iowa.

The Hawkeye State voted for President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024 and hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Still, Democrats are optimistic that a perfect storm of soaring gas and healthcare costs, tariffs and an unpopular president could help them flip the Senate seat blue.

But Democrats first must get through a contentious June 2 primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls and state Rep. Josh Turek before they can even turn their attention to the presumptive GOP nominee, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa).

The clash is a microcosm of the establishment moderate-versus-progressive insurgent battle raging within the Democratic Party, an ideological tussle that could cost them in November.

Wahls, a more left-wing candidate backed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has made opposition to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a major part of his message.

“When I’m doing my stump speech and tell people that on the first day of this campaign, I made a promise not to support Chuck Schumer for leader, the room — without any explanation — just spontaneously bursts into applause,” Wahls said in an interview.

Turek, who flipped a GOP-held Iowa Senate seat blue in 2022 and is the favored pick of Schumer’s allies, says Wahls is focused on the wrong issues.

“Wahls is out here running against Schumer. I’m out here running against Donald Trump and Ashley Hinson,” Turek declared. “In the thousands of doors that I’ve knocked, I’ve never heard a single Iowan talk to me about minority leadership.”

Wahls and Turek face off in the first head-to-head primary debate tonight. Warren is stumping for Wahls in Des Moines on May 10.

Some ad news. Outside groups are taking notice — and spending big. VoteVets is dropping another $800,000 on a pro-Turek ad buy starting Tuesday. The group, dedicated to electing Democrats with military service, has spent $6.7 million boosting Turek to date. In the new spot, a retired Army National Guard colonel says Turek will root out corruption and oppose Trump.

We’ll note Turek isn’t a veteran. But Turek’s father served in Vietnam, and his exposure to Agent Orange while serving contributed to Turek’s being born with spina bifida.

VoteVets first started spending for Turek on March 24.

Electability squabbles. In conversations with the Iowa Democratic hopefuls, both candidates insist they’re the only person who can beat Hinson in the fall.

“Zach comes from the bluest district in the state, a [Kamala] Harris +38 district. He’s never even run against a Republican,” Turek said. “This isn’t the time to be experimenting.”

Wahls countered that his record of opposing Democratic leadership will resonate with disaffected voters of all stripes.

“It is easier to draw that contrast [with Hinson] if you can tell people that you don’t owe Chuck Schumer a damn thing and that you don’t care about party bosses in either party,” Wahls said. “We can draw that contrast much, much more effectively than Josh can.”

Turek said he didn’t know if he would vote for Schumer as leader if elected.

“I need to get up there. I’m not measuring the drapes first,” Turek said.

State of play. Despite Iowa’s recent red tilt, Turek and Wahls argue that because the state’s farm industry has been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and higher gas prices, the president is no longer popular among Iowans.

Democrats are also optimistic that gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand will provide a lift to the rest of the ticket. Sand, the state auditor, is running a well-received campaign and is polling competitively with the GOP frontrunner, Rep. Randy Feenstra.

Iowa is a reach state for Democrats and exists outside of the core Senate map for the party. But in a blue wave environment where control of the chamber is in play, Democratic wins in states like Iowa could help push the party to the 51 seats needed to win a majority.

GOP view. Hinson has boosted Wahls by labeling him the “soon-to-be Democrat nominee” in social media posts. It’s a sign that some Iowa Republicans view Wahls as the more preferable general election candidate.

“With momentum building behind Wahls, time will tell if Schumer can carry his candidate across the finish line,” NRSC spokesperson Samantha Cantrell said in a statement.

Republicans are gleeful at the spate of competitive primaries dividing Democrats in key states. After the Maine primary where progressives came out on top, there are also Schumer-skeptical liberals running in Minnesota and Michigan.

Opposing Schumer may appeal to some Democratic primary voters, but the sentiment doesn’t directly impact his standing as leader. As long as Senate Democrats win the races they need to win in November, the New York Democrat is unlikely to be challenged for his job.

Happening today. Voters in Ohio and Indiana head to the ballot box for primary day.

Republicans will decide their candidate to face Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Derek Merrin is the favorite against state Rep. Josh Williams and former ICE official Madison Sheahan. This is a rightward-shifting district.

Air Force veteran Eric Conroy is favored to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman.

Indiana. There aren’t any steeply competitive primaries in any battleground seats in Indiana. The one to watch is Indiana’s 1st District, where Republicans have an outside chance to knock off Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. Republicans are excited by Barb Regnitz.

— Max Cohen

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RECONCILIATION

GOP drops $72B immigration reconciliation bill

Senate Republicans have unveiled a $72 billion reconciliation package with money for ICE, Border Patrol and President Donald Trump’s controversial White House ballroom project.

The Senate Judiciary and Homeland Security panels each released text late Monday night covering their portions of the immigration enforcement funding proposal, a key step toward passing the measure by Trump’s June 1 deadline.

Here is the text from Judiciary and HSGAC.

Senate Republicans are using the party-line reconciliation process to overcome a Democratic filibuster of ICE and CBP funding.

Democrats blocked action on the broader Department of Homeland Security funding bill for weeks following the fatal shootings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal officers in January. Then House and Senate Republicans clashed over what to include in a reconciliation package. The DHS shutdown finally ended last week after 75 days.

Here’s what’s in the GOP’s reconciliation package:

— $38.2 billion for ICE.

— $26 billion for offices under CBP. This includes $3.5 billion for border security technology and screening.

— $5 billion extra for DHS.

— $1.5 billion for the Justice Department.

— $1 billion for the Secret Service. This is “for the purposes of security adjustments and upgrades” related to Trump’s ballroom project, according to the Judiciary Committee text.

The USSS funding would cover “above-ground and below-ground security features.” The GOP text states that these funds cannot be used “for non-security elements” of the project. Republicans began pushing for ballroom-related funding in the wake of the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting.

Both panels generally provide the funding for FY2026 and make it available through FY2029.

Crunch time. Senate GOP leaders plan to put the reconciliation bill on the floor the week of May 18, the final week both chambers are scheduled to be in session this month. That means key Senate Republicans will likely aim to hold any markups on the reconciliation text next week.

Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said in a statement that his panel “is taking action to help provide certainty for federal law enforcement and safer streets for American families.” HSGAC Chair Rand Paul (R-Ky.) added “My committee will vote later this month to give the funding needed.”

Dems’ response. Senate Democrats are already vowing to fight the bill.

Sen. Jeff Merkley (Ore.), the top Budget Committee Democrat, said in a statement that “Senate Democrats are prepared to review this bill line by line and vigorously challenge any provision that violates the Byrd Rule.” Merkley also argued Republicans are “ignoring the needs of middle-class America,” citing high costs, while providing funding for Trump’s ballroom project, ICE and CBP.

— Laura Weiss and John Bresnahan

UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine backers vow tougher approach in aid fight

SEDONA, Ariz. — Congressional backers of Ukraine are shifting to a more confrontational approach with the Trump administration in their fight to help the embattled U.S. ally in its endless war with Russia.

Ukraine supporters know they’ll need Democratic votes to advance major swaths of President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request and government funding.

They see these must-pass bills as essential leverage points to force a reluctant Trump administration — and other hostile Republicans in Congress — to provide Ukraine the resources to end Vladimir Putin’s war.

“Not one damn nickel, unless there’s a really robust support for Ukraine that helps Ukraine put Putin in the cage he belongs in,” said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) at the Sedona Forum on Friday.

War continues. It’s nearly a year and a half into Trump’s second term and the conflict, which the president repeatedly vowed to end on day one of his second term, shows no sign of stopping anytime soon. Ukraine backers allege a reason for that.

“It’s pretty clear that the president and his team favor Putin over Zelenskyy — and that’s very troubling,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) during a panel at the event. “I want to turn the heat up.”

Those fears were reinforced last week with revelations that $400 million in congressional-approved Ukraine funding was withheld by the Pentagon until bipartisan pressure led to its release. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed this while testifying before Congress.

“It’s beyond debate: Trump’s on Putin’s side,” said Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.). “Withdrawing troops from Germany, sitting on the $400 million, it’s all consistent with a man who is for Russia, not Ukraine.”

A hefty chunk of Republicans, notably Vice President JD Vance, remain adamantly opposed to further aid to Ukraine. Vance said cutting that direct aid was “one of the things I’m proudest that we’ve done in this administration” during an event in April.

Other Republicans are supportive of Ukraine but wary of publicly breaking with the Trump administration to do so.

Here’s news. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) will travel to Ukraine at the end of the month to deliver a keynote address at the Black Sea Security Forum and then visit the Odesa region to tour military and civilian resistance capabilities.

Gallego is hoping to bring other senators along on the trip. He sees the delegation as a way to gather important real-time information on the war, especially as the Iran conflict has pushed Ukraine from the front burner.

“Ukraine can win this war, and Ukraine needs us to win that war,” Gallego told us. “If we don’t provide it, it’s going to be a big regret for us — a moral stain that we’ll never get over.”

— Anthony Adragna

THE HOUSE MAP

Scoop: NRCC touts financial edge in midterms

News. Just six months out from the midterms, the NRCC is arguing in a new memo released Tuesday that the Republican financial advantage will help protect its House majority.

The NRCC isn’t deterred by House Democrats who’ve become increasingly optimistic that President Donald Trump’s sagging approval ratings and rising gas prices will lead to a GOP defeat in the fall. Instead, the NRCC points to Republican deep pockets as the key to victory.

“Between the NRCC’s financial advantage, President Trump’s MAGA Inc. having $347 million on hand, CLF’s $91.4 million on hand, and the RNC’s $116 million on hand, Republicans are in a strong financial position with six months until election day,” the memo reads.

Despite Trump’s new rating lows among voters, the NRCC is arguing that having Trump and other top administration figures visit battleground regions will motivate MAGA voters this fall.

“The president and his political operation are scaling up travel into key battleground states and districts, driving turnout among the Trump coalition while expanding outreach to critical swing voters who will decide the majority,” the NRCC writes.

The House GOP campaign arm is also pushing back against the narrative of a lagging economy, citing a recent Harvard-Harris poll where 48% of voters rated the economy as “strong.”

— Max Cohen

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What we’re watching

House. The House is out.

Senate. The Senate is out.

Washington. President Donald Trump will sign a proclamation in the Oval Office at 10:30 a.m. At 3 p.m., Trump will pre-tape an interview. At 7 p.m., he will host a “Rose Garden Club Dinner.”

At 9 a.m., Secretary of State Marco Rubio will speak at a Chiefs of Mission Conference at Southern Command in Doral, Fla. At 3 p.m., Rubio will hold a press briefing at the White House.

– Jake Sherman

AND THERE’S MORE

Amicus brief. More than 250 Hill Democrats led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court urging the justices to overturn a Fifth Circuit decision that threatened access to the abortion pill mifepristone.

Colorado news. Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel is airing his first TV ad buy of the cycle in his competitive primary for Colorado’s 8th District. The $100,000 buy features bat-slinging Rutinel describing how he fought in the state legislature to “stop ICE from terrorizing Latino families like mine.”

Sanctions watch. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) is leading a group of 14 Senate Democrats in demanding the Trump administration reinstate sanctions on Russian oil. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, is among the Democrats who signed a letter sent to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week.

“Failure to put more pressure on the Kremlin would embolden Putin to continue waging his war against Ukraine, aiding Iran’s attacks on U.S. troops and threatening our NATO allies,” the Democrats write.

— Max Cohen