The 2024 general election begins to come to an end today. But for members itching to lead Capitol Hill’s most powerful banking committees, those contests kick off now.
We’ve spent much of the year talking about the race to be the next top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee. Reps. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) and French Hill (R-Ark) are considered the most likely candidates. But Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Frank Lucas (R-Okla.) are also in the mix.
The reality is that few contenders have been willing to make dramatic moves with the future of GOP leadership so uncertain. That will change after today as who will control the House next year comes into view.
This uncertainty has been hanging over the HFS contest for a while. No one is quite sure what happens to Speaker Mike Johnson and the rest of his leadership team if the House flips to Democrats. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan are lurking in the wings after both men vied for the office last year.
We’ll offer just one data point: some in the House GOP leadership orbit are very bullish about Barr. When we asked the majority leader about outbound investment reform last month, for instance, Scalise talked at some length (and unprompted) about the Kentucky Republican’s leadership in this area.
“I think [Barr] has got some interesting ideas that I think can catch, or hold, right now,” Scalise told us.
On that note, many in the GOP leadership are bearish about Hill’s chances because of his close ties to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Hill voted “present” in the GOP’s internal speaker contest well after it was clear McCarthy was on his way out.
Meanwhile on the left: Republicans may not have a monopoly on committee shakeups.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is doing a pretty good job trying to outrun the political gravity in a deep red state. But if Brown loses, it’s not yet clear who might step up as the next top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee.
We walked through some of the options this weekend. Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) is the next-most senior and currently chairs the Senate Armed Forces Committee. If Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) pulls off a miracle and wins his reelection, he’s widely expected to go after Brown’s old job. Then there’s Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), currently Senate Intelligence Committee chair but with a well-established interest in banking policy.
If none of those chairs shuffle around, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) is next in line.
As for the House, Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) has made clear she intends to be the banking panel’s chair next year. If House Democrats fail to flip the chamber, however, plenty of Congress watchers wonder whether the California Democrat will want to grind through two more years as a ranking member. Sources in the Waters orbit say she’ll plan to lead regardless.
