Redistricting winds howl against House Dems

IN THIS EDITION

Redistricting fight now going badly for Dems

Senate shelves SAVE as filibuster debate rages

Kelly thinks Hegseth fight may reach SCOTUS

Appropriators want SCOTUS justices to testify

What we’re watching

THE TOP

Redistricting fight now going badly for Dems

Happy Thursday morning.

On April 22, House Democrats were riding high.

They’d just won a huge gamble in Virginia, spending tens of millions of dollars on a redistricting referendum aimed at netting them up to four new seats. President Donald Trump — who set off the unprecedented national redistricting fight in Texas last year — was tanking in the polls, dragging down Republicans everywhere.

Overall, it looked like Democrats had held Republicans to a draw in the redistricting wars and were on their way to the House majority.

But the last two weeks have suddenly turned rough for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democratic Caucus. They’re facing legal setbacks on redistricting across multiple fronts, developments that have reshaped the battle for the House.

As many as 10 seats could now swing toward Republicans in a worst-case scenario for Democrats, although this all remains very fluid.

What is clear is that the Supreme Court’s decision to gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and another late round of GOP redistricting have dramatically altered Democrats’ fortunes. We’re not saying Democrats won’t win the House. But the hill has gotten steeper.

First, Florida Republicans shoved through an aggressive gerrymander that could boot four Democrats from the delegation. Even many Republicans were surprised at GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposal.

Then, Virginia’s Supreme Court signaled that it was considering striking down Democrats’ hard-won referendum victory. No one is sure what will happen there.

Plus, the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais has put a number of seats in play across the South, including in Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee.

Democrats knew their fortunes could turn quickly, especially if the VRA ruling went against them. But the size, scale and speed of the redistricting reversal is stunning.

“No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not be able to artificially gerrymander themselves into the majority in 2026. Voters will get the final say in November,” said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.

Virginia. Democrats are beginning to fret that the Virginia Supreme Court will overturn the voter-approved map, which was drawn to net them as many as four blue seats. The court declined to allow certification of the April 21 redistricting referendum, leaving Virginia election officials and candidates in limbo.

Remember, the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to proceed over GOP objections. But the Virginia justices also said they reserved the right to rule on the Republican procedural challenge after the voting had taken place.

Every day of delay has Virginia and national Democrats growing more skittish. Yet Democrats could still win two of the contested four seats even if they lose in court.

If the new map doesn’t go into effect, Democrats still have a good chance at toppling GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans. But GOP Reps. John McGuire and Ben Cline will likely be safe.

The GOP South. It’s been a week since SCOTUS ruled in Louisiana v. Callais. And Republican-controlled southern states — under pressure from Trump — have moved extremely fast in response.

GOP lawmakers in Tennessee have already circulated a map designed to draw Rep. Steve Cohen out of his Memphis seat with negligible impact to the state’s other Republicans.

Louisiana Republicans are likely to redraw at least one of the Bayou State’s two Democrats out of the House.

Alabama GOP officials are pressuring the Supreme Court to lift an order that forces the state to keep its congressional map until 2030. This would allow the Republican-run legislature to at least draw Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures out of his seat, stretching from Mobile to the Georgia border. In theory, Republicans could also go for Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell, whose district is anchored in Birmingham.

South Carolina is mulling a new map to eliminate iconic Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn’s deep blue seat. Clyburn is the only elected Democrat remaining in the Palmetto State delegation.

Mississippi’s Republican Gov. Tate Reeves told the Daily Caller he’s considering a push to eliminate Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson’s seat in the western part of the state. Mississippi already had its primary, so this is very likely a 2028 move.

None of these Republican-drawn maps are final yet. The Florida map is subject to multiple lawsuits. Yet even if the map stands, Jeffries and Democratic leaders think they can snatch a few light red seats from the GOP. South Carolina Republicans are far from assured of passing their map.

Nationwide, a number of seats are trending in the Democrats’ direction. If the current political environment continues to worsen for the GOP, Democrats may even pick up or hold onto seats that Republicans redrew.

– Jake Sherman, Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

Seeking real-time reporting and answers to your pressing questions? Upgrade your subscription today and save nearly 20% per month by opting for an annual membership that includes monthly virtual briefings and Q&A’s led by our editorial team that give you a front-row seat to the news shaping the country.

THE SENATE

Senate shelves SAVE as filibuster debate rages

Senate Republican leaders are unlikely to hold additional votes on the SAVE America Act, the voter ID and proof of citizenship bill many Republicans say has done more harm to the party than good.

Now, even the bill’s most outspoken GOP supporters are acknowledging that another drawn-out Senate floor debate would be a futile exercise.

But the Senate’s tabling of SAVE will only anger the party’s base and intensify the long-shot push to scrap the filibuster. This issue has become a major point of contention between President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

“I completely understand my colleagues who want to maintain the filibuster. We all want to maintain the filibuster, honestly,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said. “But I know the Democrats won’t. That’s the only division here.”

It’s exactly the type of conversation GOP leaders don’t want to be having as they’re staring down an election-year legislative pileup.

The details. Reopening the SAVE debate on the floor would require another procedural vote at a simple-majority threshold. Doing so would pre-empt more urgent Republican priorities, such as reconciliation and FISA.

There’s also a new wrinkle: The most recent SAVE-related vote, which occurred during a vote-a-rama last month, fell just short of 50 votes. To Senate GOP leaders, that alone is a good enough reason to move on.

Many of the most vocal SAVE America Act supporters now agree, pointing to the rejected vote-a-rama amendment as proof they need a new strategy.

“We had a test vote. It failed,” Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said. “So we’ve got to rethink what that means.”

Next steps. Johnson said the vote-a-rama effort was a “good exercise” but noted it proved that gutting the filibuster is the only way to pass the SAVE Act. Only a fraction of GOP senators support this, despite Trump’s constant prodding.

But Johnson has been telling colleagues they should be concerned they’re not doing enough to push for the bill given how intensely it has animated the GOP base.

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) believes it would be a mistake to shelve the bill. While GOP leaders say it already served a political purpose by forcing Democrats to vote against a narrow voter ID amendment, Schmitt noted that the full proposal, which he co-authored, has languished.

“We’ve not voted on it. So I think we need to spend the requisite time on it and then … let the chips fall as they may as far as seeing where people are at,” Schmitt said. “The expectation among a lot of people is that we would do that.”

Thune’s position. Despite GOP frustration, Thune’s job isn’t in any jeopardy. In fact, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) — the SAVE Act’s most ardent proponent — said last week that Thune “is beloved by colleagues and very popular within the conference.” The odds of a Thune ouster, Lee added, are “literally 0 in 100,000.”

That doesn’t mean the SAVE fight, and its impact on the Trump-Thune relationship, will vanish.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told us he’ll force another vote on the SAVE America Act during the second vote-a-rama for the reconciliation bill this month.

— Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

SCOTUS WATCH

Kelly thinks Hegseth fight may reach SCOTUS

SEDONA, Ariz. — Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) will be back in Washington on Thursday morning for the latest chapter in his legal battle with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The Arizona Democrat doesn’t think this will be the end of the road.

“My expectation is we win in the circuit court, and I also expect them to probably appeal again, and it might go to the Supreme Court,” Kelly told us at the Sedona Forum. “No matter what he does, I am not going away.”

Oral arguments are scheduled today before a three-judge panel in the D.C. Circuit at 9:30 a.m. The appeal came after a federal district judge in February granted Kelly a preliminary injunction barring the Pentagon from moving forward with plans to punish Kelly, a retired Navy pilot, and dock his pension.

The backdrop. The legal fight stems from a video in which Kelly and five other Democratic lawmakers with national security backgrounds reminded troops of their duty to ignore illegal orders.

“I’ll do everything possible to have his back and to help,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), another lawmaker in the video. “It’s less meant to target Kelly. It’s meant to send a message … which is why it’s so important in any given case, that we fight back — hard.”

Crow and the other Democrats — Sen. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Reps. Maggie Goodlander (N.H.), Chrissy Houlahan (Pa.) and Chris Deluzio (Pa.) — signed an amicus brief backing Kelly, as did other retired military leaders.

Pentagon’s argument. In an April 27 response brief, the Trump administration said it was merely holding Kelly to the same standards as any other servicemember.

There “should be no doubt that the military may properly ensure that retired officers do not urge servicemembers to disobey lawful orders,” DOJ officials said in their brief, dismissing the notion that Kelly’s elected position offers him any distinct First Amendment protections.

Kelly and Hegseth have sparred repeatedly. “The things you say matter,” Kelly said to the Pentagon chief during an April 30 Armed Services Committee hearing. “You are not right for this job.”

— Anthony Adragna

SCOTUS WATCH

Appropriators want SCOTUS justices to testify

For the first time since 2019, Supreme Court justices may cross the street to Capitol Hill to testify on their annual budget request.

The House Appropriations Committee’s Financial Services and General Government panel, which is in charge of the bill that funds the court, is working to schedule a time for the justices to appear before the subcommittee, according to FSGG Chair Dave Joyce’s (R-Ohio) office.

House Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) has been calling for the justices to testify. DeLauro said Justice Elena Kagan told her the justices are open to appearing.

During a recent subcommittee markup, DeLauro noted that appropriators want to give the court the money it needs for security. But lawmakers need to first know more about where the funds would go. The high court requested an additional $14.6 million for security to protect the justices.

The FY2027 FSGG funding bill would provide $207 million for the Supreme Court, almost $44 million more than it received in the current fiscal year.

House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said the hearing would be good for the panel. But Cole said members would need to stick to questions about the administration of the court and refrain from asking about cases.

“It would be good for the American public, and I think it’d be good for the two parties, but not if one side or the other turned into some sort of circus,” Cole said.

– Samantha Handler

📆

What we’re watching

House. The House has a 9 a.m. pro forma session. Speaker Mike Johnson and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner will deliver 8 a.m. remarks at a National Day of Prayer service.

Senate. The Senate has its pro forma at 10 a.m.

Washington. Oral arguments will be held in the D.C. Circuit in Kelly v. Hegseth. Judges will consider whether to invalidate a lower court’s order blocking the Pentagon for punishing Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) over his participation in a video reminding troops to ignore illegal orders.

President Donald Trump will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

— Anthony Adragna and Laura Weiss

AND THERE’S MORE

A mysterious new super PAC is making a late play in Democratic primaries in two key swing districts in Nebraska and Pennsylvania.

Lead Left PAC registered in April with the FEC. Its statement of organization gave little clue as to its partisan affiliation.

The group is spending more than $500,000 on TV ads in GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie’s district. The spot will boost Lamont McClure in the Democratic primary, per a form the PAC filled out with a local station. McClure is in a competitive race that includes the DCCC-backed firefighter Bob Brooks.

In an open Omaha swing seat, Lead Left PAC is spending nearly $200,000 to air an ad attacking state Sen. John Cavanaugh as having “betrayed Nebraska Democrats.” Cavanaugh faces Denise Powell in the primary.

On the airwaves. Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.) is out with a new spot hitting his Democratic challenger Eric Jones as “a San Francisco venture capitalist” who’ll be “a lapdog for big corporations.”

In Maine, state auditor Matt Dunlap is out with his first TV ad in the Democratic primary for retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s seat. The 30-second spot touts Dunlap’s roots in Bar Harbor and support for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) presidential bid.

We’ll note that the DCCC just endorsed state Sen. Joe Baldacci in this primary.

Endorsement watch. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC is endorsing West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero in California’s 6th District.

Age gates. More than 100 family groups are urging congressional leaders to oppose the Parents Over Platforms Act, a bill to have smartphone users input their rough ages. The groups prefer the App Store Accountability Act, which would have users verify their exact ages.

— Ally Mutnick, Max Cohen and Ben Brody